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To: Jon Cave who wrote (58497)	1/14/2000 10:20:00 AM
From: oilbabe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Jon: Looking for laggards...I mentioned MDR yesterday...up nicely again this am...not lagging in the past two days, but from last year this has lots of upside, and nasty news is well priced in, so little downside should osx correct...as it always does.(sigh)

To: Jon Cave who wrote (58497)	1/14/2000 10:27:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Jon - "Trading" FGH;imo, we will either see $7/$8, or $3/$4 FGH within two weeks. From here - either going to lose another 40%, or make 40% on a bounce to where it will base. ... today is important; lets see if the "believers" can defend $5 No - diatribes today. I hope the SOB bounces to $7 - merely unemotionally trading it on the technicals and what I perceive to be its NAV. I admit to being nothing more than a mercenary with FGH here. But, I see some tape action that I like. I am using tight stops - may exit & try to "re-catch" a bottom if it looks as $5ish won't hold - but, what I saw tells me it just may & it could bounce to base at $7ish , even $8imho - I am just a mercenary looking for that quick $2 move - nothing more, nothing less. But, in all fairness - if FGH turns over a new, more open & more aggressive PR stance toward shareholders and "if" they show me the money - I have no problem going long and holding. I just think that "if" FGH really is what many here think it is (I am not so sure it is) then the real money will be made later in the cycle. I think FGH pops to $7-$8 "if" we get a flow of new value money, but I think they really have to prove it to the Street to EARN their way back to $10-$12 which if the accounting numbers are correct; is probably a fair value for this point in the cycle. But, I dont see Institutions loading up FGH untill JL shows them the money - via new orders, significant ones & he shows them the synergistic savings via consolidation and that & $10 may be months, or quarters away. What pisses me off about FGH; is someone - probably JL, should come out at really SELL the damn story. He should say - hey; we realize that Offshore Rig Construction is cyclical, we are working off the old backlog from the prior cycle, we have diversified into other marine construction, - here are our problems... ie: Canadian Yard - & problem with the concessions granted from the Canadian Govmt, arbitrations,the accounting issues over the backlog etc - he should have been upfront about this . He should also address the NAV of the company and address both the up & the downside to "capacity" and how he will manage both the hard & soft assets - the workforce swings that are part of the boom-bust cycle of this subsector. He needed to "sell" Institutions on the "Bottom" and the value of FGH in a worst case scenario - should they lose the arbitrations, should the not see a major flow of significant new orders for a couple of qtrs yet - he needs to address what he is going to do and how they ride out the storm in that scenario. The silence void is allways filled with rumor ineundo & the worst case scenario. People are going to allways sell first & ask questions later in a situation with Dane leaving so abruptly. I realize he has done "some" of this - but, he didn't do a good enough job - or we would not be where we are presently, now would we ? Hopefully he is addressing the Institutional holders on how & why this happened and he'd better put on his Salesman's Hat & get his ass out on the road selling the FGH story... We shall see... This can sink below $4 - it is not impossible; it can also bounce for an overnight 40% pop and settle & base at $7, or even $8 here. No one knows - there is not enough info, I haven't read any real detailed analysis of the valuation of these yards & facilities & what type of cash they can raise, or costs saved via asset divesture. Also, he needs to address why they are not core assets and he needs to explain what areas are their core areas going forward & why ? He needs to sell the China Yard story, whats the upside, the future - what is FGH's Intnl push ? FPSO's ? Let's hear more about the upside that the HLX side of the business has etc? C'Mon JL - you've got about $300-400 Million upside riding on this personally (the difference between $3 & $40 FGH stock). Ps, it wouldn't be a bad idea to address the rumors on him taking this private should we see $3ish per share levels. A LBO would not be to difficult should these hard assets have the value some think they do...