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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (37464)	1/14/2000 2:04:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

True. But the stock market is telling Greenspan. "Greeny, we know you are spineless. We know you lack guts to do anything to derail this stock market. We know you are in a box. F*ck you." -g-

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (37464)	1/14/2000 2:06:00 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Respond to of 99985

One can never tell ahead of time when a bull or bear market in anything will end. Some people will tell you they can, and may even point to examples. That's just luck. If they could do it consistently they'd be richer than Bill Gates. We only need to recognize the tops and bottoms as quickly after they happen as possible. The TYX certainly looks toppy at the moment. The rising channel it is trading in suggests a drop to 6.4 to 6.45% is quite possible, without even breaking out of it's upward trend. A bond rally would not surprise me in the least bit near term. I would sell it though when it reached the 6.4 area. Regards, TW

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (37464)	1/14/2000 2:40:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

the answer is, you can't. the bond got dumped again today, but i'd still be a buyer at those levels. sentiment on bonds is way too bearish right now...in fact the data are very much at historical extremes. since the sentiment readings on stocks are at the exact opposite end of the spectrum, it is a reasonable expectation that both markets will soon reverse. Robin Mesch who does studies on bond trading volume at various levels recently argued that 6,97% would be a reasonable target for the yield on the long bond...we're getting pretty close to that. if Greenspan were to aggressively raise rates on the short end, bonds should begin to get a bid on the expectation of an economic slowdown. the question is of course, will he? so far the Fed is more talk than walk...<gg>