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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hdrjr who wrote (58539)	1/14/2000 4:48:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

What's up with VTS/Veritas ? -simply way too undervalued to its Oilpatch peers here ie: <<To: JimL who wrote (58413) From: SliderOnTheBlack Thursday, Jan 13, 2000 12:59 PM ET Reply # of 58547 If we maintain momenteum - laggards, mid & small caps are next....I am also steadily accumulating VTS in the low $13's here, VTS could be a 3 bagger at peak cycle (it ran over $20 in 3 mos in 1998 !) - hard to say that for SII CAM WFT BJS ESV NE at these levels.>> Last time at this point in the cycle when RDC & ESV were $24ish - VTS was $20+; the drillers as usual broke out first - are a bit ahead of themselves fundamentally & the laggards are getting intra-sector rotation $ flowing to them presently. VTS is highly leveraged to the coming increase in cap ex spending - it went from like $16 to $42 in 1997 in just from March/April to August/September I think. Has a history of making very quick, very large moves - was simply way too cheap compared to its peers here. A quick "screen" that I use here is to compare the % upside remaining in Oilpatch stocks to their recent highs in September - VTS PGO had way over 50% left where some of the mo-mo fav's here are at those highs and arguably near resistance and quite ahead of themselves fundamentaly. This is not bad for the Oilpatch - as we can keep moving forward as a sector; we'll just have some balancing within. ESV RDC may retrace from profit taking and the PGO's VTS's UFAB's benefit via the rotation $. PGO had some bad news here, but focus on the laggards with the best fundamentals, or news comments - UFAB's CEO had very enthusiastic expectations - this was a no-brainer still is; so cheap compared to its earnings potential when at peak capacity that the CEO warned it would be at shortly - Stephens shows them being a $24 stock within 12-18 mos; has $3.84 ish peak EPS and is both the cheapest stock in their coverage universe on a cfps multiple in in the service sector - and also showing it as having the most upside appreciation potential in their Oilptch coverage fwiw ! SII NE RDC ESV only have so much more they can possibly go here over the next few mos - great companies; but they are at prices where they exceed virtually all analyst estimates going 2 qtrs out - where they would match earnings levels supporting these valuations in the prior cycles. - their earnings here - do not support much,if any substantial upside here; when compared to prior earnings to shareprice levels in the past cycles. They are unquestionably near fairly, if not fully valued based on this point of the cycle and their fundamentals. The laggards like VTS UFAB & E&P's are the play nearterm here imo. Picking some nice 2nd tier players with strong upside remaining to the recent Sept Highs is a good trading strategy here nearterm. E&P's will pop to a major degree off of the coming earnings reporting - fill you portfolio's now as they are still cheap; UPR PXD OEI EOG NBL BR APA ... Small caps are starting to get some individual 10% one day moves - they aren't bad plays here. Lots of opportunity here in the patch. $30 Oil is so close they can taste it in the pits... guess what happens here when we finally see headlines reading : $30 Crude Oil ! FGH didnt behave to badly. Volume down to 500K. Maintained the $5- $5 1/8 band pretty well. We shall see tuesday... I still see this hitting $7 in a 2 day run up as shorts take profits & of course have to "BUY" to cover & close out their positions; could start tues, wed, or thurs next week. But, will hit heavy resistance at $7 I believe... Going to be real interesting next week