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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (6078)	1/14/2000 4:20:00 PM
From: JDN	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10293

Dear Bill: Forget about interest rates. No way they could ever be raised enough to offsett the techs. I estimate it would take a rate in the 9-10% range to stop them. Why? Because it is ABSOLUTELY imperative that industry adopt the New Age means of doing business to remain competitive. You dont have to believe me, just believe Greenspan thats basically what he has been saying. This little raises the Fed MIGHT make are merely them following behind the market rates. No way is Greenspan going to upset THIS apple cart. It has HIS name on it. JDN

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (6078)	1/14/2000 4:42:00 PM
From: steve susko	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10293

I have never seen the market ignore such a clearcut admonishment on stock valuation.

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (6078)	1/14/2000 5:05:00 PM
From: Oblivious	Respond to of 10293

Bill, Don,t forget the higher energy prices slow the economy. Alot of tech has to be bought to stay competitive and save energy. Most tech companies are sitting on mucho cash and aren't as reliant on low interest rates as cyclicals. The U.S. tech leads the world and export no matter the rates.

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (6078)	1/14/2000 7:11:00 PM
From: F. Lynn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10293

I don't think you were really wrong about Intel's business. Although the quarter was good and I certainly wouldn't want to short INTC, let's remember that: Intel's 69 cents was helped by eight cents in other income. Operating EPS of 61 cents is up from 54 cents TWO YEARS AGO. that is pretty anemic growth, a CAGR under 10%. Yet the stock still trades at 10x revenue and 38x calendar 2000 estimates of 2.68 a share. So, while it wasnt a bad quarter, the growth picture remains uncertain and the valuation stretched. As for the interest rate environment- they will matter when greenspan starts hiking. I would continue to be careful. I didnt get out of tech but I certainly lightened up.

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (6078)	1/14/2000 10:09:00 PM
From: Campbell Scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10293

Bill I followed your posts for couple years now. I bought and held MSFT MRK GE ABS in 1994. In 1997 I bought MSFT INTC and G and still hold. On top I own Canadian bank stocks past several years which until past year actually were not that boring! I am now starting to buy little of this a little of that again. Was going to buy mostly big name techs, but now your making me wonder. I recently bought QCOM MSFT again, what are your thoughts right now on NOK CSCO techs and I am definetly buying MO. Or do I favour lower multiples like FO (fortune brands) or SYY (Sysco Corp). Either way I am not staying in cash, I could not care less about short/medium term price volatility - also could you reiterate your position on COST. thanx

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (6078)	1/15/2000 4:15:00 AM
From: Bill Wexler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10293

I gave it some more thought.... Short term rallies do not a macro-trend make. Though I am really pulling my hair out over the fact that the market seems to be ignoring a growing headwind of interest rates and a much more aggressive Fed, I feel it is too risky to plow back in a big way into high-multiple tech. I may miss another huge rally, bur I am perfectly content to sit back for the moment and earn a few percent here or there on boring dividend plays and money markets until my comfort level increases.