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Technology Stocks : RATIONAL SOFTWARE- BUY OR HOLD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas Haegin who wrote (3015)	1/14/2000 10:42:00 PM
From: ratlong	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3115

No prob, Thomas. You've been a long time contributor to this thread, I have enjoy and benfitted from your posts. One final thought on RATL- it is a great stock, don't get me wrong. Over the past year, I've shifted the money I've made in RATL (it represented over 90% of my equity holdings for the better part of a year) into other stocks. Where RATL stands right now, I'm glad I've done so. As for wireless and/or semiconductors, I have a very large INTC position accumulated for the most part about 5 years ago- I look at is as my kids college fund- don't really even think about it as I'm not selling it! I have a large position in RIMM and have been in it for awhile. I will continue to add below 45. I think that they are a prime acquisition candidate and I believe that they will benefit from the upcoming hype around the Palm IPO. I am very heavily invested in B2B. ICGE, CMDX, SQST, VERT, CNQR, HLTH, ARBA and CMRC now make up a significant portion of my portfolio. Built that about six months ago, so have done pretty well there. I highly recommend that you look at these stocks- especially ICGE and CMDX. My "back of the napkin" breakdown on ICGE is as follows: 1) B2B market projections (Goldman Sachs, MSDW, Robertson Stephens) avg $1.5T by 2004 2) ICGE owns 50 leading companies. Let's assume those companies capture aggregate 5% market share. 3) Thus ICGE companies have total revenue stream of $75B in 2004 4) A 20X multiple of revenues? Probably conservative for Internet space, right? 5) Thus the aggregated market capitalization for ICGE companies would be $1.5T 6) ICGE owns minimum of 35% of each of those companies. For calculation standpoint, lets assume dilution to 20% avg. 7) This conserative assessment results in an ICGE market cap of $300B in 2004. Current market cap is $34B. Yes, it has gone up rapidly, but still- this is a huge market(B2C was projected to top $180B, so the equivalents to YHOO, AMZN and others could far surpass their market caps) and ICGE is the premium brand. The stock has taken a hit since the beginning of the year- rightfully so- and presents a great 3-4 year investment opportunity. Anyway, sorry, thread, for OT discussion.