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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M2 who wrote (45598)	1/14/2000 10:02:00 PM
From: valueminded	Respond to of 94695

William: I agree with your assessment of the FED. However, I believe that AG knows we are in a bubble but has chosen to defend the stock market over the bond market. The bond market is slowly catching on but not fast enough to force the FED into action yet. There is a real chance of 50basis points as the FED is waaaay behind. If your scenario (25bp hike) plays out, look for huge bond market losses. I think it makes last year look like a bull market for bonds. So I stick with my prediction of long bond at 8% by middle of this year with double digits by year end. The bubble cant be let down slowly. If it were, the release in money stocks would overwhelm the supply. This market will end in an inflationary scenario only to be followed by your deflationary scenario if the resulting market correction is greater than 50% or so. Whether we go to deflation is too hard to predict now.