To: Bill/WA who wrote (73715 ) 1/15/2000 11:52:00 AM From: Knighty Tin Respond to of 132070
Bill, ASKJ shows one of the problems when these fluff stocks start heading south. The exchanges do not add far out of the money strike prices until the stock is within 10 points of that number, and even then they wait until it has traded there for a certain period of time. I had the problem recently with Ciena. I had purchased 65s and 60s when the stock was in the mid 70s, then rolled them down to 55s and 50s (I had already had a large 50s position as a homerun shot), then rolled down to 45s, then bought some more 50s when it rallied, then rolled down again to 45s. But when the stock hit about 45, it fell in a swoop so fast that there were no 40s to roll down to. So, I sold most of my 45s at a profit, but was naked to the great downside opportunity I had spotted. In retrospect, it didn't hurt me, as the stock has rallied. But I still like to have more alternatives than the exchanges provide, on the upside and downside. I don't see them adding 70s to Ask Jeeves until it goes below 80, at which time they will have fat premiums. I know Drew Peck's work, which is certainly a cut above the avg. chip analyst's (kind of a low bar to hurdle <g>), but I don't know him and his situation at Cowen. One of my fellow tech analysts at Waddell & Reed in the late 1970s took a job at Cowen and he thought they were great and very supportive of well-researched maverick opinions. But that is a long time ago and I'm sure mgt. has turned over since then. I suspect that if he is too loud in his negativism about Intel's phony eps number and the even sillier market reaction to it, that Intel will put him on their enemies list and try to get him fired the way they did Kurlak. My guess is that Cowen will only react if it costs them commissions. Unfortunately, they should only react if he is proven wrong, which will not happen in this case. He is certainly worth listening to on Intel, unless he gets gun shy. However, I haven't followed his recommendations on other stocks that often to remember if he has been similarly astute in other names.