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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: redwood who wrote (18740)	1/15/2000 1:22:00 AM
From: Tradelite	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

Perhaps the examples to follow when dealing with LU would be ORCL and INTC......I played ORCL's little earnings disappointment for the bounce a few months ago and got it at 39 and sold a few points later the next day. Wish I'd held--look where that stock is today. INTC disappointed a couple of times.....look where it is today. Good solid companies which are leaders in their field don't go out of style, plus they have the muscle to solve their problems if any arise......some of the second-tier companies might not. This doesn't mean LU will come out of its current crisis alive, but it's a decent bet in the meantime.

To: redwood who wrote (18740)	1/15/2000 10:04:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

. . . . . . . . .On Lucent and Rumors. . . . . . . . While I agree with your sentiment, regarding Lucent, Redwood. . . I feel that there is tons of money on the sidelines, waiting to get into the very best high-tech companies at a discount. Hungry money. They want in long-term and are perfectly willing to wait out any poor quarters. This opportunity is the chance they have waited for all year. It isn't about Lucent and us. . . .it is about these zillions of new investors with fat bank accounts, due to cashing in their money markets after the first of the year. . . .and opening online brokerages. . . .and trying their hand at handling their own investments. That is why there are so many ads making fun of such people. . . .implying that if you handle your investments yourself, you are sure to go broke in no time. This is the group that is buying LU now. . . and the BIG money investors will be buying next week. But in my opinion, nobody will go broke buying Lucent near 50 bucks. . .or WCOM near 45. . . or even CMGI, VERT, ICGE, CMRC, QCOM or any of the other stocks that are in MOST demand at current levels. . . selling at discounts over last month. This entire group will once more be all the rage, IMO. These were the names topping the losers list yesterday. . . but they will soon be topping the winners list once again. . . but not until some Wall Street Fat Cat Simon says. And frankly, I have no idea when that will be. Now, I must teach everyone including myself, a lesson about Lucent. When it comes to reading these manipulated markets, we must all consider the source and what they have to gain. . . and be careful never to "BUY THE HYPE." A rarely mentioned rule among CEOs says, "never believe your own press." What are the facts with Lucent? Yes, they missed their earnings. Why? Because they could not meet the demand. Their production could not catch up to sales. This problem is REAL and must be addressed for future quarters to turn things around. However, if there were a problem to have as a CEO, I would prefer this one. Farm out some of the production, double the shifts, hire more workers, do whatever it takes to keep up with the sales staff. . . .buy a company if you need to. . .just don't upset your sales execs. [2 of which recently left Lucent for LightPath]. So, long-term I believe the company will solve this problem and will have found ways of increasing its profits in doing so. . . this is merely a growing pain. Hardly a concern. Next. . . is Lucent under examination by the SEC? No it is not. If there was a leak that the SEC was about to investigate a half dozen companies, that would be a serious problem for the SEC. . . one that should not be overlooked by the U.S. citizens. . . especially investors. But nobody REALLY believes that there was a leak at the SEC. And nobody REALLY believes that there is going to be an investigation into Lucent. So be careful not to believe what isn't really there. And for goodness sake, do not trade on it. . . unless you are taking advantage of the rumor to get a lower price on Lucent. You can set your calendar by the rumors that come out about ATHM. AOL is going to buy them for $80. AOL has cut a deal with A.T. & T. ATHM is being sold to MSFT. A.T. & T. is going to buy AOL. Or the latest, A.T. & T. is going to buy the rest of ATHM. There is an ATHM rumor for every month of the year. And they never come true. Remember when Excite bought ATHM? There was NO RUMOR. Likewise, who knew about the AOL / Time Warner merger BEFORE it happened? Who passed a rumor about it? . . .or profited from trading it on the swing? Answer: Nobody. Nobody knew, because 90+ percent of the time, nobody ever knows. . . these things are kept hush hush until they are announced. . .for LEGAL reasons. 9 times out of 10 such rumors are false. Look at it this way. . . . When someone comes into an online chatroom saying this rumor or that. . . or worse yet. . . if a rumor website . . . which is in the business of STARTING rumors . . .then perpetuating them . . . puts out a blurb about a takeover or a merger or whatever. . . .play the odds. 90% percent of the time it will be a false rumor, so playing AGAINST it has a terrific chance of being correct. Let the stock run up on the rumor. . . then short it with confidence. . . . .let the stock die hard, then buy up the bottom with confidence that the truth will be told within about 48 hours of the rumor. Your position will never be popular, but it will usually be correct. But don't ever start to believe such press. . . . and NEVER believe the hype. Only ask to whom it benefits. . . .then trade with them. . .or stay on the sidelines and watch. Be smarter than the herd. . . be faster than the herd. . .but never be afraid of being the lonely bull. Rande Is