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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (45610)	1/15/2000 10:07:00 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

GZ, You've hit on the most important central feature of this long bull market. POOR MARKET LEADERSHIP as defined by adv/decl or hi/low market internals. Past bull markets all boats were lifted by the tide.That's the difference between the past and now. This great bull market has been significantly different in that its duration has been extended as a result of continually changing industry sector rotation. In 98 my semi equip stock were selling for cash book value now they're the number one sector in performance. All along bears have been crying the end is near yada yada yada. Did the owners of Iomega enjoy the last 2 years of a bull market - not unless they were short. Greenspan doesn't want to pop the bubble.If you were on the treasuries side of this stock market you'd call it the greatest tax generator of all time.Think of the revenue loss that the U.S. Govt would incurr with a full fledged bear market.They'd lose 20 % of trillions of market capitalization. If we are ever to cure deficits and social security this little money maker must be nurtured ,jawboned and protected(as was done during the asian contagion with the 3 - 1/4 rate cuts and high liquidity ). There will be corrections and there will be rotations ,but this market still remains a fertile culture of wealth and capital creation for those who foresee the future's great growth opportunities. I for one would like to see the doomsayers taper their fear mongering and at least be impartial about what has realistically described the market thru several tops and bottoms - neither of which has been marked by overall doom or euphoria. It in the final analysis ,is a stock pickers market where supply and demand of a companies common stock swings to extremes on the hype the company and/or any related firm trying to benefit from the story creates. It is just dynamics of a market's supply and demand.I for one think it will be protected and nurtured by the assets of all players. JMHO Bob

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (45610)	1/15/2000 11:34:00 AM
From: jjs_ynot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

GZ, A mere "reversion to the mean" historical rate of return on NAZ and SPX would seem like a bear market to many. Dave

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (45610)	1/15/2000 12:00:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

GZ, >>with higher rates, their cost of doing business will become more expensive and will start to cut into their promise of future profits.....<< This will be particularly true of the New AOL, a leader up until Recently. Now saddled to a debt burdened and aging conglomerate, they have funked out with this purchase. But the other 149 technology companies leading the Nasdaq are being bought for the future potential of Internet earnings and world wide expansion of the same. The current push in these Indexes will not be stopped by Greenspan, maybe just burped. <<smile>> The direction of these markets are difficult to understand....., unless your an under 30 money manager. To me the key is held by Japan and ECU....should these economies continue rebounding from the past currency and economic problems, there will be substantial pressures to commodity prices and to balances of currencies, leading to protectionist noise. The Fed is at a pivot point here at 6.5% and will make a mistake in raising rates to fast. If the current world balance of currencies remains the same after these next Fed increases, 2000 should be a repeat of 1999 after the next 6 months have passed. I'm looking for modest problems for 4-6 months and strong return of the markets. What happened last week on the Indexes appears technically very damaging and a prelude to some early problems. However this last batch of Inside Weeks looks to be Bullish. Chip