Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Barrick Gold (ABX) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jack BROSS who wrote (1937)	1/15/2000 1:42:00 PM
From: nickel61	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3558

To all concerned Barrick investors Success! They have heard our call,or rather the call of the marketplace. Barrick announces it is polling its shareholders about the desirability of staying hedged in this new enviroment. Goldbugs rejoice! As the Barricks of the world unwind gold will return to the $400-$600 price range it should have been in all along. READ AND REJOICE! From the Le Metropole Cafe Web page Cafe Member X January 14, 2000 1. Barrick sent out a questionnaire to institutional investors asking them whether or not they'd like to see Barrick maintain its current hedging strategy, namely, maintain a large hedge position irregardless of market conditions. We are also taken to understand that Barrick polled the analysts after the 'Hedging School' seminars that Barrick staged. Obviously, the company seems to be acutely sensitive to the direction of the wind (i.e. sensitive to shareholder opinion - which is admirable) and we all know which way the wind is now blowing. What made sense 10 years ago makes no sense now. 2. There are apparently two camps on Barrick's board - the hedge camp and the non-hedge camp. The hedge camp stands on sturdy ground if only because they have made the Company so much money over the last decade - how can you argue with success? Careers have been made out of hedging. That Barrick now seems to be re-evaluating its stance (judging by the questionnaires, etc.) is testimony to how strong this wind is blowing. (We hear of one investor - a fairly heavyweight guy - who wrote on his questionnaire, in very blunt terms, that he was considering selling all his shares in Barrick unless the Company cleaned up its hedge book. It didn't take long for the phone to ring.) 3. Any re-consideration by Barrick in regard to its hedging position would be tremendously bullish for the gold markets. It would signal a change in attitude and a sign of things to come. Over the last decade several hundred tonnes of accelerated supply have hit the market every year as a result of the increasing practice of hedging. Imagine if that movie were played in reverse? GFMS is predicting that the total hedge book will increase this year by plus 55 tonnes - imagine if that figure were instead minus 500 tonnes? Ka-ching! Yet 500 tonnes represents only a fraction of the industry's collective hedge book. Is the industry becoming less blind to its own interests? There are indications that this is so. Your space has been very tough on Barrick (and for long suffering gold shareholders, this is understandable). It should be noted, however, that for Barrick to change directions would require considerable guts on the Company's part. Not only are they 'lifers' when it comes to hedging, they are proud lifers. The "Premium Gold Sales Program" has been a much trumpeted facet of the Company when it came to marketing itself. "We get $120 above spot for our gold - look how clever we are" they at times seemed to be saying. (We now know that this financial alchemy was achieved through the use of calls and other derivative instruments. We now see the man behind the curtain. It ain't pretty.) For a Company that has so deeply committed itself to a certain market philosophy (monetize the gold in the ground), it takes courage indeed to re-consider one's stance.. And that is why a re-consideration would make them heroes. It's one thing if a 'gold bull' company like Gold Fields Limited (NASDAQ - GOLD) renounces hedging - that's a small leap to make (but one, mind you, that has been very good to its relative share price). But Barrick? For them to come out and say: "Given that the gold price is now beneath the mining cost of much of the world's supply, given that we have seen the lease market behave in volatile fashion, given that most investors see gold shares as an equity play on the gold price, given these and other reasons, we are now undertaking to reduce our hedge book over time." For Barrick to make such a statement, well, as I say, they'd be heroes. Barrick demonstrated leadership a decade or so ago when it pioneered the use of forward sales as a way of enhancing shareholder value. Through its recent actions and gestures, Barrick now seems to be considering the possibility of showing leadership again; this time by pioneering the trend away from fat hedge books. I can't say how much such a simple move would re-invigorate the community at this bleak time. Regards - X I