Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (58572)	1/15/2000 12:00:00 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider: Inflation, Productivity, and Greenspan I am publishing this link to a recent Greenspan speech here as it may give us some insight into the thinking of the world chief central banker. business-times.asia1.com.sg There are some striking things about this speech. 1. Gold, Oil, indeed any commodity prices are virtually absent from his remarks. 2. Productivity enhanced by info technology are the key focus. 3. He sees this productivity spreading across the world. 4. His main worry now is wage increases in the US, due to the incredibly tight labor market, not commodity prices. My conclusions from his remarks. 1. Yes there will be rate hikes but they will probably be his typical inch meal .25 hikes in the fed funds rate. 2. All he really wants to do is tap the brakes, not slam the brakes. He just wants to bump up unemployment a tad. 3. No huge Volkeresque invert the yield curve shock tactics here. 4. He see no need to induce recession - yet. 5. The old benchmark of $20 oil ceiling is dead, higher oil prices can be sustained here due to increasing productivity. Does this mean the end to cyclicality as we knew it. Nope, just that this cycle may be of longer duration. OSX 110 - 120 is a good liquidation point, for most OS equities. I am now thinking that it may not be the top for this cycle though. You had published somewhat similar views in the past, stating, I believe, that the penultimate top of this particular OS cycle could take out the last cycle high. If those are, where, or continue to be your beliefs, I am in accord with them. Maybe it works like this? 1. Dump at 120 2. Re enter at ~90 3. Sell into the rally to +160