To: Rande Is who wrote (18757 ) 1/15/2000 8:56:00 PM From: American Spirit Respond to of 57584
Subject LU: You guys starting to sound like me. Contrarian bottom-fisher. Buy great companies on bad news. Because the market overreacts so much of the time. Positive or negative. Remember how internet stocks zoomed all the way to heaven a few times? Or QCOM almost to 1000? Or how UIS, ANF, BEBE, TYC, NOVL, IBM, WIND, IMRS, COMS, CPQ, ORCL etc. all divebombed on one bit of supposedly bad news? Buying breeds more buying and selling breeds more selling, until it reaches irrational points. LU down 28 points just because of a supply-line hiccup? Or if an executive quits. Or they disappoint once? Or the SEC investigates something. Or a Y2K slowdown warning. Or whatever. Bottomline so long as you're sure a company is in business to stay and has a stellar future, or is at least worth far more than the current market cap, bargain time. I look forward to seeing stocks go down 20-40% in one day (so long as I don't own them). LU this past week is a classic example of a sterling company getting hit just for a one-time misjudgement. Then the "rumors" are the icing on the cake for the shorts. Classic. All of a sudden no one wants this stock. But I do. And we all should. Plenty more examples but the above are the ones I either played heavily or remember from recent activity. XRX is another but I got out because they really did screw up. Sure the stock is cheap but it may awhile to get back on its feet, alone that is. What are some of the other bargain gems now? Anyone? I know, just wait for an internet carnage day and take your pick. But otherwise, I'm sticking with BEBE and ANF (also URBN and may add IBI) as my faves and LU as my blue chip tech bargain. So long as you have cash buy LU in the low 50's here (partial position) then just keep buying more and more if it goes down. Someday soon it will all reverse and even your first buy will be nicely profitable. Not a perfect science but that's the way I position myself. Anyone watching IMRS? Selling at less than half its similar competitors 11+ vs 28+ for MAST at ultra-low PE. No news for awhile which has depressed the stock down to near 52 week lows. One quarter of lousy earnings as they shifts from Y2K biz to e-commerce. Little downside and a possible triple or more. A forgotten stock but a coiled spring. Watching AOL, ATHM, etc. If the internet stocks get hit more in coming days and weeks there may be a real trading opportunity there. But I don't feel a bottom there yet.