Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (73764)	1/16/2000 9:38:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

BGR: Love to learn, especially with respect to Intl. Trade and Intl. Affairs. Fact is, I've been fortunate enough to have recognized, analyzed and written up my share of "scoops" in that area over the last few years, that were later picked up by higher profile "others". The modest success I have enjoyed in this area owes much to the fact that I disregard cavalier comments provide by wanna-be economists and concentrate on factual material. I love the way you dodge the important questions/points raised, with soggy red herrings. I suppose I shouldn't expect more. Your comments make it clear that you are not aware of the fact that one of the most prevalent and available U.S. paper assets, that being treasuries, in fact reversed trend well over a year ago, and that "net selling" is accelerating. No personal criticism intended with this statement, as very few investors are as yet aware of this, much less aware of the ugly implications it provides. This is the basic reason for current rising rates in the U.S. and the reason why rates will continue to head north. The U.S. dollar has been a substitute for the gold standard for much of the world ever since Bretton Woods. So what. While I am an admirer of the U.S. for the many ways in which it generously provides assistance to all kinds of other jurisdictions, it is also a fact that the U.S. government has for decades taken advantage of its reserve currency status by inundating the globe with debt paper that will never be repaid. The rest of the planet is waking up to this fact and is quietly "reducing exposure". Maintain your smugness as you choose. Myself, I prefer to read the writings on the wall (as I see them) and duck the evolving, inevitable and deserved pressure on the U.S. buck, and the coming crunch in the stock market which rising rates and currency pressures can only exacerbate. That the U.S. APPEARS to be doing well at the moment is not something I would dispute. A stock market bubble, frenzied money supply expansion, manic borrowing, and bogus economic numbers can be expected to provide such appearances, much as they have in the past. Yet any dig beneath the surface unearths an economic mess. Negative savings rates, massive corporate and consumer debt, rising default rates, near record bankruptcy rates, a narrowing equities market (wherein the indexes are held aloft by a handful of "darling" stocks), PEs in LA-LA land, and above all else, falling profits, provide a much clearer picture for some. Stick with the PC/semi research? Count on it. Refrain from analysis in the international arena? Not a chance. That activity provides too delightful an enhancement of profits and a marvellous advantage over those who don't do it. (g) Best, Earlie