Doc - Sounds like our histories with GMGC are pretty similar. I first came across the company back in 1995 (not long after they IPO'd) while doing a year-long study and research project on the Information Superhighway.
As you might recall, around the 1993-1995 time frame there was a ground swell of media/investment attention to that theme, and it was hard to separate hype from reality without doing some homework. As institutional investors, we wanted to try to get a handle on the long-term investment implications/merits of the superhighway, and the companies/stocks which seemed likely to benefit most.
I went to trade shows (e.g., CES in Vegas) and tech conferences, talked to numerous company managements and Wall Street analysts, read tons of literature on the subject, and finally concluded that the engineering, construction and usage of the "highway" would be a long time playing out: I figured it would take 15-20 years for the superhighway to reach its full potential in terms of technological development and user/subscriber base penetration ("roam" wasn't built in a day) and would provide some great investment opportunities along the way.
I studied the "content providers" (e.g., Time Warner, Disney), the "transporters" of the content (wireline/wireless companies, a segment of my report where I devoted considerable space discussing the development/progress of the Internet) and the "enablers" (companies providing the harware/software needed for the end-users to access the content).
I then developed an investment time line, categorizing these companies into the time periods (within the 1995-2015 time frame) during which they seemed likely to derive the maximum demand/revenues/earnings benefits. (Interestingly, software companies like GMGC are now entering the sweet-spot of their demand cycle, which should continue for years to come.)
Companies which I came up with that appeared to have very intriguing long-term investment merit (many of which now seem like obvious beneficiaries) included Microsoft, Viacom, Time Warner, Pixar, Compaq, Apple, Cisco, 3Com, Hewlett, Oracle, Motorola, Intel, Nokia, Sybase, IBM, Silicon Graphics, Sun, Spyglass, Symantec, McAfee, VeriFone, QUALCOMM, Nextel, Globalstar, Electronic Arts and, yes, General Magic -- to which I devoted a couple paragraphs in my report.
In total, I discussed 300 companies in the report, most of which looked like they would play a significant role in the long-term development of the superhighway. Many of these stocks have obviously worked out great since then, some haven't. But there's still a long way to go. (Wish I had the money back then to buy stock in all of 'em !!)
I didn't start buying GMGC until 1997 when it was languishing around $2 (initially bought 5K), and looked like a good bet. I've continued to buy it periodically ever since (all the way up and back down again, paying as high as $15). (For better or worse, I'm a long-term investor, and don't get caught up in the temptations to short-term trade.) Don't know (or really care) exactly what my average cost is, but I own a pot-load.
My wife will probably kill me, but based on what has happened recently (GM, CNBC, breakout pricing on high volume, etc.), I'm gonna buy more next Tuesday, regardless if it trades up or down. I guess I'm just a "glass is half-full" kinda guy. Sorry to bore you with my life story, but as you know I'm relatively new here and wanted to share my thoughts/experiences.
Best regards,
ea |
