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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Graeme Smith who wrote (6110)	1/15/2000 4:06:00 PM
From: Graeme Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10293

I've gotta admit, I'm long winded and boring.

To: Graeme Smith who wrote (6110)	1/15/2000 5:47:00 PM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10293

Not boring by any means. I am just astounded at the number of individuals on SI who believe they can forecast huge seismic changes in market trends that are overlooked not only by all the market experts and commentators, but by the thousands of traders and many thousands of investors whose actions actually constitute the market we know today. You are right and all of them are wrong? That's the part I have a hard time swallowing. Regression to a statistical historical mean could be totally statistically flawed for all you know. I am just saying I wouldn't bank on it in the face of a ton of people going the other way for years on end despite all these facts that you deem obvious and inevitable. Did you ever consider that the mountain of actions to the contrary tend to invalidate your assumptions? The argument I always hear is that the bubble MUST pop one day. Who cares if it hasn't burst yet - like all good economists, we simply ASSUME that it has to happen. That is why economists aren't allowed to manage real economic activities.

To: Graeme Smith who wrote (6110)	1/16/2000 5:53:00 AM
From: JDN	Respond to of 10293

Dear Graeme: Well, from my viewpoint I see a huge fallacy in your arguement right in the beginning. Cant speak for other companies but I have a fairly widespread portfolio of Tech stocks and the ones I own which are buying back stock have NO DEBT at all on their books. So from my perspective, I dont see companies borrowing to buy back stock. Perhaps you are dealing more with either the small caps or the internuts. Regarding foreigners, one reason they invest in the US market is for safety of the currency NOT for capital gains, though I am sure they like them too. Were interest rates to be raised not only would their returns be increased but the dollar would become stronger thus even MORE incentive for them to invest in America. Regarding liquidity, if you were my age you would remember when only a small minority of Americans owned ANY stock and tax deferral plans used by the typical American were non existent. That has now flip flopped to where only a small minority of Americans DONT own stocks. Money will continue to pour into those tax deferral plans regardless of the market prices in fact Dollar Cost Averaging demands it. JDN