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Technology Stocks : Softbank Group Corp -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (3310)	1/16/2000 12:52:00 PM
From: kai_kai	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6018

a clipping from ol' Ed: From: econews@yardeni.com yardeni@yardeni.com "COMMENT: Everything old is new again. The New and the Old Economies are merging. The forward-thinking managements of AOL and Charles Schwab looked into the future and saw more opportunities in expanding their operations on the Planet Earth than in cyberspace. Both recognized that their highly valued stocks could be used as currency to purchase relatively cheap companies in the Old Economy. While the AOL Time Warner proposed merger was immediately heralded as a watershed event, I think even more significant was last year's announcement by GM and Ford that they are moving more quickly to implement e-commerce strategies. I believe that the adoption and implementation of new technologies by Old Economy companies will have a far more immediate, as well as long-lasting impact on our overall economy. Here are my five themes for this year and the decade ahead: 1) The bull market should broaden as Old Economy companies morph into the New Economy, and as valuations of the two converge. 2) Real GDP has the potential to grow at a 4% per year trend rate, a full percentage point higher than in the past. 3) The secular rebound in productivity should continue with average annual growth of 2.5%, up from 1.8% during the 1990s. 4) Inflation should fall closer to zero. Some deflation is possible as the Internet increases competition. 5) The above apply not only to the US, but also to all competitive economies around the world."

To: TobagoJack who wrote (3310)	1/16/2000 5:29:00 PM
From: Edwin S. Fujinaka	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6018

Jay,...I see you are betting on either the big runup soon or a big crash. Those into the money calls probably don't have too painful a time premium, but I haven't looked yet. Is the worst case for you if Softbank just stays between 56K and 90K until expiration. That is my crash scenario for Softbank, down to perhaps 50K from here. Some other issues could be harder hit. My upside scenario is optimistic, but not as optimistic as you or Michelda. I'm looking for an upside around half way to your 800K to say 400K for the year, but that is contingent on no crash for 2000 and the listing on a US exchange for Softbank. If you and Michelda are correct, I will not complain <G>.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (3310)	1/17/2000 12:01:00 AM
From: manohar kanuri	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6018

Good move, Jay. Why own the farm and the trees when you can get the rights to just the coconuts, is what I always say. Or some such homely farming aphorism. I've been psyching myself into thinking that the only way to play this whole thing is to work on the assumption that it is a bubble that will unfold for several years. Or that free capital flows, free trade, manufacturing flexibilities and pre-emptive central banks have brought about changes in the inflation equations that are still to be properly understood. Not that inflation is dead, but that with so many boffins in so many places watching like hawks the nature of the game changes. A little like jello/jelly -- you press down in one place and it pops up elsewhere. A combination of factors will keep most commodity prices under downward pressure and another mix keeps wage rates in check. If the only inflation for the next few years is going to be assets prices (as the Dow powers on to 40k?) well why not enjoy the ride? Don't worry, be happy...... Will Greenspan, though? He seems to be making an explicit case for targeting the stock market as the source of economic friction. I think he's right. Sounds like a conflicted case of running with the hares and hunting with the hounds, but heck, I'm used to it! The only question I have left is - will markets collapse if rates hit 8% in the next 12-18 months? I don't think so, they can take it in their stride. But what is the probability? From .1 ten days ago, I find myself toying with a .2 to .3 this weekend. Maybe it doesn't sound so crazy (rates go up and stocks go up) if we stop seeing the current market as a mechanism for discounting near-term earnings so much as a mechanism for arbitrating probabilities of success in the global/internet economy? A short-term mind shift. A collective decision to spend A Day at the Races. And to think I didn't smoke a thing today.