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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BDR who wrote (6118)	1/15/2000 10:10:00 PM
From: Graeme Smith	Respond to of 10293

>> -We are in the middle of a market mania because stock >> prices are shooting through the roof. >> -But most stocks aren't going up, they are declining. >> (So which is it?) >> -Only a small sample of stocks that happen to be >> represented in certain indices are going up and that >> skews the indices. >> (That may be misleading but is it unhealthy? Some stocks >> go up, some go down. What is unhealthy about that?) This is relevant in that previous major corrections have been preceded by a divergence between the indexes and the average stock. A lot of money went into the market but it only went into a few "no-brainer" stocks, the nifty 50, Microsoft/Cisco etc. today. A negative adv/dec line can be a harbinger for overall market correction. I read a lot of the fiendbear site. In general I would say that 2/3 of the articles on it I ignore. There are just as bears in this world with their heads stuck in the sand as there are bulls. However, the other third of the article are very worth reading. Any article that knows when the next stock market crash is going to happen, or is crowing on about how the big one has just started is hit the fast forward button material. Personally I think there is a high risk of a crash, but only God, or maybe Alan Greenspan if he got bitter, knows when or even if it will happen.

To: BDR who wrote (6118)	1/16/2000 4:51:00 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10293

At least I provoked a lively debate here. Your point about E-tailers crashing is important. I more inclined to think we will see rolling corrections as unsupportable sectors collapse under their own weight and the money goes elsewhere. But I really don't expect index-wide crashes. Why? Supply and demand in the stock market. Institutions and wealthy individuals don't dominate the markets any longer, deciding whether stocks or bonds are a better refuge. That's why long bond interest rates are decoupling from the stock market averages. There are millions of Americans with tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars each in the stock market. They don't know what a bond is or why they should ever invest in one. And they won't. If they abandon tech funds then they will go back to cyclicals for a while. Or something else. But the money coming in is still greater than the supply of stock available for sale. That's where the PE,PS, or P-whatever analyses of traditional historical means start to become irrelevant. Hence my remarks about economists and the way they think. They have to assume their models are valid to reach any conclusions at all. Alan Greenspan is not a manager responsible for generating a profit. He never has been and never will be. He is an economist trying to analyze what may be a new economy with old tools. And he sounds very confused. The Internet is more far-reaching than radio and automobiles combined. Radio spread one-way information in a whole new way that could help economic activity; automobiles allowed us to move goods and people better and faster. The Internet lets us leverage all of our other infrastructure advances into a much higher-speed economy where the opportunity to buy and sell is several times higher than ever before. The problem with the bubble market thesis is that it rests solely on assuming the inevitable in the face of totally contrary evidence. IT MUST HAPPEN. Absent evidence in your favor, use assumptions. Fine, wake me up when the dream is over and the grouchy old bears are finally right. I have already made more money in the market than I expected to for several years. And I expect to make more investing in new technology in an extremely productive and stable US economy. Telling the market it is WRONG is not a very productive way to spend your time, IMHO.