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To: cluka who wrote (23976)	1/16/2000 8:00:00 AM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 25960

You heard it here first. I just spent some time bringing my EPS model up to date. I figure in Y2K they will do over the outlandish number of 3.00. The following is a summary from a PM I just sent someone. I don't have any idea how the analysts can be so far off. In the past my Y2K estimate of $2 was based on some numbers Akins presented at last year's annual meeting. I used his estimate of the lithography market in Y2K of $500 mil. (I don't remember if this includes service and spares.) I used an after tax rate equal to their last great quarter, June '97. All this netted to something like $2.25. Yesterday I decided it was time to use a slightly more precise model for Y2K. I conservatively figured they will grow their backlog this Q by 35%, then 20%, 15%, and 10% sequentially in the following 3 quarters. Assuming they sell their backlog (which they did last quarter), this nets to Y2K sales of $609 mil, which isn't that far above Akins' projections last May of $500mil. Last May he said their goal was a gross margin of 45% achievable by Q4 00. Margin last Q was 37%. Consequently, I used margins of 39%, 40%, 42%, and 45%. Adding in healthy increases in expenses, using a 38% tax rate (guided by Angus last Q) and shares outstanding of 31.5 mil, I get Y2K estimates greater than $3. If I am anywhere close to correct, we will by a $200 stock by Q4 00. FWIW Jay

To: cluka who wrote (23976)	1/16/2000 11:23:00 AM
From: Guy Gordon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

RE RadarView Could you give me an example of how this newsletter was useful to you? I went to their site, and downloaded the sample letter. The PDF file is corrupt and missing the first two pages. The rest I did not find too useful.