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To: kormac who wrote (58601)	1/17/2000 7:00:00 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

seppo, The anomaly you mention IS the NAO, the oscillation in barometric pressure between the areas you have specified. Low or high pressure systems moving through the area cause the oscillation in the difference between the two areas BP. A positive oscillation is (basically) when the Azores have the high pressure, negative when Iceland area has it. As such it is simple and one of the easier things to track for an amateur. When Iceland maintains a high it becomes a blocking system, the Azores when it maintains a high pressure is similar to the "Bermuda High" that often effects the US in summer. BUT, I think there is a formula or small fudge factor to use with the raw data. Despite numerous inquiries no professionals have seen fit to share this. Based on historical data I have made my own. In the past I have posted the NAO in a general way as barely positive/negative, moderately, strongly etc. based on this. However, lately I have just been posting the simple arithmetic +/- based on an average of 4 to 6 weather stations. This way no one is subject to any errors based on my calculation of a fudge factor (which is small, anyway). While the NAO may yield a trend in LT charts, a real anomaly year like 96 appears unpredictable and I do not think (IMHO) it would be useful to apply statistical analysis to it at least by me. There are numerous studies of this oscillation going on by professionals, but no conclusions other than what I have stated in my posts that I am aware of. Simple as it is, the NAO has been a good forecaster of Winter eastern US temps this year so far and in most other years this century. My enthusiasm for it is based on this factor, rather than any skill or expertise of my own in weather forecasting. Except maybe dem weather bones, dem wooley caterpillars etc etc, VBG. Best Regards, Roebear