To: kai_kai who wrote (3331 ) 1/17/2000 3:59:00 PM From: mact Read Replies (1) | Respond to
kai, enjoyed reading ur post...while there many similarities between our current tech. dominated equity mkts and japans mkt. from a decade ago, there are many differences too...the japanese mkt's were driven by escalating land prices and people using over-priced land as collateral for speculative ventures...when the real estate mkt. imploded, so did their economy...while a similar situation could certainly happpen here in the US, i feel it will not happen for awhile...the communication and internet revolution still has too much momentum right now...it is changing the way we live in a fundamental way, which is quite different than paying too much for land...imho this momentum will continue for at least several more yrs...thats not to say we will not get the inevitable 10-25% corrections as the mkts are perennially cyclical, but the overall trend should be up...greenspan will most likely stop the rate increases by late summer and perhaps even lower them by then...there is clearly no signs of inflation other than the stock mkt itself...im abit fearful that the streets insolence at AG's last speech(last thursday) by ramping without even a hiccup might irritate him to the point where he might take on "the street", just to show whos still in command...but i agree with u that when the corrections occur, nobody will be spared and this certainly would hold true if the correction turns into something much more...i am mostly in cash now just waiting for the sell-off...the mkt will not increase for 6 months straight, so a correction should happen anytime now...but if we all agree that 9984 will reach 400K-800K this year, why bother selling?...esp. for us in the US/europe where we have tax implications to deal with...trying to time prices mvts is difficult and we lose 1015 points on the spread everytime we sell or buy...jmho's of course...goodluck.
