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To: tero kuittinen who wrote (3307)1/17/2000 10:45:00 AM
From: slacker711  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 34857
 
Hmmm...it's always interesting to see how the numbers from these various services never add up to each other. Anybody want my estimation of the US market....I have a one day special for only $140 7/16 ;-).

1/17/00 - NOKIA AND MOTOROLA DOMINATE U.S. HANDSET MARKET,
REPORTS THE STRATEGIS GROUP
WASHINGTON, Jan 17, 2000 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Nokia dominated the
US cellular/PCS handset industry in 1999 with
over 34% of all cellular and PCS handset sales, followed by Motorola with 23%,
according to The Strategis Group's recently released
report U.S. Wireless Handsets: Marketshare and Trends. The Strategis Group
reports that TDMA was Nokia's best selling technology,
whereas Motorola's highest volume of sales came from analog handsets. Nokia was
also the leader in GSM handsets in 1999, while
Qualcomm garnered the highest volume of CDMA handset sales. U.S. Handsets
Vendor Market Share Estimates for year-end 1999
(iDEN Handsets Excluded) 1999 Nokia 34.5% Motorola 23.1% Qualcomm 12.0%
Audiovox 11.8% Others 18.6% Source: The
Strategis Group, Inc.

Total U.S. cellular and PCS handset sales were 43.3 million units during 1999, and
The Strategis Group forecasts 50.5 million units in the
year 2000. "Rising handset sales are due to a very high replacement rate for newer,
smaller, longer talk-time handsets," states Elliott
Hamilton, Senior Vice President and Director of Global Wireless at The Strategis
Group. "Current users are keeping their handsets for
less than 3 years before replacing with a new one."

The leading technology of 1999 was CDMA, with 32% of the total cellular and PCS
handset market. TDMA terminals were the second
best selling handsets with about 31% market share, followed closely by analog
phones with a 30% share. Handsets using GSM
technology, which is the standard in European markets, accounted for only 7% of
the market in the U.S.

By 2004, CDMA handset sales are expected to take 50% of the total U.S. handset
sales. "CDMA is a technology that will continue to
benefit from the shift from analog to digital networks," notes Sylvia Panayi, an
analyst with The Strategis Group. TDMA handsets sales
are also forecasted to remain strong by the year 2004, while analog sales will
decline significantly. GSM handset sales growth will also be
significant over this period, however GSM market share will still remain low. CDMA
Handsets Are Expected to Capture 50% of 2004
Handset Sales (Sales in Millions) Technology 1999 2004 CDMA 13.7 29.5 TDMA
13.5 22.8 GSM 3.0 5.3 Analog 13 1.5 Total 43.3
59.1 Source: The Strategis Group, Inc.

The Strategis Group's new report, U.S. Wireless Handsets: Marketshare and Trends,
provides a comprehensive look at handset sales
trends. Topics covered include: * Cellular/PCS subscribers forecasts * Cellular/PCS
handset sales forecasts by type of sale, by
technology and by operator * Consumer trends for handsets * Overview of handset
trends regarding size, price, technology and band *
Profile of wireless handset vendors * Vendor market share by technology, by mode
and by operator * Carrier handset sales by brand *
Overview of the international handset market * Smart phones and 3G evolution

The Strategis Group, an edr (e-data resources) company -- with offices in
Washington, DC, London, and Singapore -- publishes
in-depth market research reports, provides customized consulting services, and
supplies continuous information solutions to the cable
TV, satellite, Internet, competitive telephony, broadband, and wireless
communications industries. The Strategis Group's market studies,
valuations, and strategic planning provide crucial information to communications
industry leaders throughout the world. Please contact an
account executive at 202-530-7500 (voice), 202-293-7933 (fax), or
sales@StrategisGroup.com (e-mail) for sales information.

SOURCE Strategis Group, Inc. (C) 2000 PR Newswire. All rights reserved.
prnewswire.com -0- CONTACT: Sylvia
Panayi of the Strategis Group, Inc., 202-530-7508 or spanayi@StrategisGroup.com
WEB PAGE: strategisgroup.com
GEOGRAPHY: District of Columbia INDUSTRY CODE: TLS PUB SUBJECT CODE:
SLS



To: tero kuittinen who wrote (3307)1/17/2000 10:51:00 AM
From: gdichaz  Respond to of 34857
 
tero: Thanks that is very helpful. Of course we will all have a better basis for analysis once the great Crusoe unveiling takes place tomorrow. Look forward to learning. Best as always, Chaz



To: tero kuittinen who wrote (3307)1/19/2000 5:22:00 AM
From: Mats Ericsson  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 34857
 
Transmeta, Crusoe, Arm, TXN, Nokia, Ericsson.....

"I'm a little disappointed on how lukewarm Nokia sounds on Crusoe."

Hmm, I'm a bit disappointed with you Tero. Phones take like years time to be build up. 3rd gen. mediaphones will use Symbian (epoc) os and various processors (mainly Texas Instruments?) based on Arm architecture. This been the boring fact like 2-3 years now. It's Nokias and Ericssons ( Symbian, Bluetooth named) roadmap going forward.

techweb.com
Suppliers Face Obstacles In 3G Wireless Rollouts
(01/17/00, 5:09 p.m. ET) By Darrell Dunn and Mark LaPedus, Electronic Buyers' News
Suppliers have begun debuting chip sets that support 3G wireless technology, which promises to pave the way for a new breed of handheld devices.

But a host of problems, including confusing standards and technical snafus, could push out mass deployment of 3G wireless services from early next year, as previously promised, until as late as 2005, industry observers said. The delays could leave chip makers, OEMs, and carriers on the 3G runway for many years.

Still, suppliers have been busy readying devices for the market.

Qualcomm, for one, is quietly sampling the world's first chip set for 3G networks, while Texas Instruments (TI) has garnered another design win for its 3G-chip platform, this time from Ericsson. The chip set is a critical component that handles voice-processing and other functions in a handset.

A chief benefit of 3G technology is the ability to unify existing cellular standards -- CDMA, GSM, and TDMA -- under one umbrella. In addition, 3G technology will boost wireless-data rates from the current level of 9.6 kilobits per second up to 2 megabits per second, enabling a new class of Internet-access devices.

But a major question remains: When will the 3G market actually materialize?

Analyst Will Strauss of Forward Concepts, in Tempe, Ariz., said he estimated a 3G rollout will begin in Japan late next year. 3G will not be a significant factor in the United States until at least 2003, followed by Europe a year or two later, he said.

“Quite frankly, people were originally thinking 3G cellular was going to hit in Europe by 2002, and now it's looking like it's going to be more like 2005,” Strauss said.

Even in Japan, 3G is being deployed in increments. NTT, the carrier in charge of 3G in Japan, will offer these services by 2001, but it will only offer 64-Kbps wireless-data services, not the 2-Mbps services that were previously promised, analysts said.

One of the biggest stumbling blocks in implementing the technology has been a battle over 3G standards. There are three confusing, and incompatible, protocols: cdma2000, W-CDMA, and a TDMA-like derivative. And a migration path from current digital cellular standards to the more complex 3G protocols remains daunting.

Another hurdle for 3G is competition from general packet radio system (GPRS), a technology that transports wireless data over a GSM network at speeds up to 115 Kbps.

“GPRS does about 90 percent of what most people had originally envisioned 3G was supposed to do,” Strauss said. “And while GPRS is fulfilling a considerable amount of what 3G is supposed to do, it can be done with only slight modifications of the existing infrastructure, while 3G requires a huge investment.”

Another problem is the migration path from two of the current standards, GSM and TDMA, to the more complex W-CDMA technology, according to Johan Lodenius, vice president of marketing at Qualcomm's CDMA technologies division in San Diego, Calif.

“It's going to be difficult for the TDMA and GSM camps to migrate to W-CDMA because the [various protocols] are completely different,” Lodenius said.

Qualcomm said it believes it has an advantage over W-CDMA with a competing but proprietary 3G technology called cdma2000. In fact, cdma2000 is a seamless upgrade path from the current CDMA technology, cdmaOne, Lodenius said.

Qualcomm said it is shipping the world's first 3G-based chip set, a cdma2000-based solution. The MSM5000 chip set supports wireless-data rates of 153.6 Kbps. Later, it will support Qualcomm's own proprietary wireless-data technology, HDR, which supports 2.4-Mbps applications.

TI's efforts to maintain a dominant position as a supplier of processors for use in cellular telephones gained momentum last week with an announcement that Ericsson has selected TI's Open Multimedia Application Platform for use in its 3G systems. That announcement follows a similar one last May, when Nokia said it would use the TI OMAP in its 3G equipment.

Neither Ericsson nor Nokia has disclosed a timetable for the rollout of its 3G handsets, but both will use the OMAP from TI, which consists of an as yet undisclosed ARM-based microprocessor, a TMS320C54x-based DSP, DMA, memories, and customer-specific hardware blocks.

“This platform will enable enhanced wireless Internet applications and access of everything from voice, data, and video to functions that include digital e-commerce and real-time audio and video streaming,” said Bob Carl, manager of marketing for the Americas at TI's wireless-communications division.

Others are also gearing up 3G chip sets, including LSI Logic, Philips, and DSP Communications, a subsidiary of Intel.