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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: double-plus-good who wrote (2774)	1/17/2000 2:00:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

i think gold and silver will make a big move before equities collapse to discount the fall in the dollar that will occur, but oil and its shares have alreaddy fully disounted this, the shares ain't going much higher and they will collapse w/ equities. have a look at the XOI... then go look at the drillers. they are not confirming the blastoff in oil. in any case, even if oil does not fall (which i find HIGHLY unlikely unless you believe the mania will continue indefinitely) as int rates rise the multiples on these businesses must contract. Oil drillers are typically single digit multiple businesses... go look at some of the valuations on these things and then compare that to Ike's rabid bullishness. then go look at the traders' comms for oil (commercials are all short) but hey, if YHOO can trade at 2000x earnings or wherever it was a month ago (i stopped counting) anything can happen.. so jump in and play in the mania...