To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (11259 ) 1/19/2000 2:30:00 PM From: Wally Mastroly Respond to of 15132
FED Beige Book Summary out - STRONG ECONOMY, NO INFLATION (yet?)<g> Excerpt: Reports from most Federal Reserve Districts indicate strong economic growth in December and early January. Economic activity was described as strong in most Federal Reserve Districts. Growth was characterized as solid in the Philadelphia and Kansas City Districts, and as moderate in the Districts of Atlanta and Chicago. Consumer spending growth was rapid during the holiday shopping period, and many retailers expect the high level of activity to continue into early 2000. Manufacturing continued to expand in nearly every District and was broadly based across industries. Exceptions to this were in the food, apparel, agricultural equipment, and some construction-based industries. Residential real estate construction was mixed across regions, with the northeastern states experiencing an inventory shortage, the southern and midwestern states a slowdown, and the western states an expansion. Commercial construction activity varied across the country. Bank lending was mixed, with a decrease in mortgage lending that was often offset by increases in consumer and commercial lending. Labor markets remained tight in all Districts. However, the tight labor markets did not seem to be matched with large wage increases. Most consumer prices appear to be holding steady in much of the country, although a few Districts reported moderate increases. Producer prices also appear to be flat, with the exception of rising petroleum prices. The century rollover caused little or no disruption to commercial or production activity, and consumer stockbuilding was limited to increases in items such as bottled water and batteries. Few future disruptions are anticipated, and few problems concerning Y2K-related inventories are expected. Consumer Spending Retail sales attained or exceeded expectations for the month of December in all Districts except the St. Louis District, where sales increases of 4 to 5 percent were considered to be below expectations. Sales were especially high throughout the nation in electronics, toys, and jewelry. Several Districts reported lower-than-average sales of apparel due to unseasonably warm weather. All regions reported large gains in e-commerce. The growth in Internet sales had a minimal reported effect on more traditional shopping, with retailers only in the St. Louis District reporting negative effects. Some retailers in the San Francisco District mentioned that e-commerce sales were concentrated in the beginning of the holiday period and that the sales stimulated competition in retail markets. Many Districts reported an increase in the intent to invest in e-commerce as a result of the high sales. Auto sales were high thoughout the country, especially for sport utility vehicles and light trucks. bog.frb.fed.us