To: SargeK who wrote (58634 ) 1/18/2000 12:06:00 PM From: SliderOnTheBlack Respond to of 95453
The Sweetspot: Cold NE Weather, record crude & fresh cash - so when do we sell - err, take profits ?~!?! ...gotta love this action. We've got some major individual breakouts here. I've allways loved VTS - accumulated in the low $13's as recently as Jan 14 - at 13 3/4's on margin; the less than one week return is 14+% & a margined 28%. Lots of stories like this out there... small caps moving nicely; RGO has been real strong of late, CRK RRC moving - not a bad day, to rotate some buying power/profit taking $/cash to some laggards - HOFF has a history of popping the day after a breakout - don't ask me why ? - I'll play this as a breakot rally laggard today - lots of others. E&P's that will have huge upside earnings surprises are still very, very cheap here. Nat Gas "pureplays" like NBL EOG are simply way, way oversold - NBL an unbelieveable fundamental value here - way too cheap in comparison to its peers here. SargeK; re: FGH - relax bubba; I got this at "the" bottom and this is a technical 40%+ "bounce" play to $7 here imo; or 80% return for those with "guts of iron" who would "dare" margin play this baby here (use TIGHT stops if on margin on this one). See you at $7 ish, or so - from there - you're on your own Sarge - unless; it shows legs... technically; this is a "deadrat" bounce gimmie. $6 today ? - as I said; those late entry "SHORTS" who piled on the final capitulation HAVE TO & WILL cover here. If we get strong API's which we very easily could - we will have the SWEETSPOT DREAM SCENARIO cookin: 1. Icey Cold New England Weather - to chill all the Wall St Oil Bears 2. Crude at record highs & in the headlines ! 3. OPEC indicating they WILL extend & maintain cuts ! 4. E&P's who will CRUSH their earnings expectations & OSX expectations very high going forward in next few qtrs 5. Fresh money - not necessarially from "rotation" - but, at the very least - we are getting a "lions share" of the NEW money that traditionally flows into the market in January. 6. Nat Gas recovering with the Weather. 7. Technicals ! - new highs & breakouts from the OSX & Individual names - when SLB HAL & BHI get on the wagon - look out ! **** Never to early to start thinking about "profit taking" - yes, you have to SELL (the dreaded "S" word) to make money folks... and when I see virtually everything (above) clicking on all cylinders - I start looking for profit taking opps & rotation ideas. *remember last year we had a big Jan breakout only to be quickly followed up by a hard selloff - so; be nimble & don't be afraid to at least take "some" profits & perhaps rotate to laggards - with less downside/profit taking potential here - but, staying fully invested. - this has worked for me of late... We still have lots & lots of laggard, rotation plays here. I am presently only looking to take profits & rotate on individual one-two day major breakouts. On margin here & if I get some one day 10-12% pops - GONE ! HOFF looks like a rotation play today; watch this puppy pop 10% tomorrow... allways does ?!?! HOFF is the "Day After" pill for OSX traders - don't know why, just allways seems to follow this pattern. I dont follow MAVK closely, but also lagging the move here. I really love NBL here - BR & APA will get big moves & NBL and EOG will get action as the Institution's next choice when APA & BR move too far - too fast & separate in fundamental valuation multiples imho. I think NBL is cheaper here than EOG fwiw. UPR - will at the LEAST hit its 2,3 time prior resistance of late at $16 - a 20% trade looking like a chip shot as well. Small caps - RRC CRK - have easy 25%+ coiled spring moves here. TMR & RGO allready moving pretty well. ***Trading/rotation/laggard ideas anyone ? This is CRUNCH TIME people - lets hear the register ring baby - selling "some" PGO - VTS on nice margined breakouts here... and everything I have - IS FOR SALE here ! I may take the damn day off today - yessssssssssssss, does this feel good or what ?