To: SLSUSMA who wrote (37844 ) 1/18/2000 1:35:00 PM From: JDN Respond to of 41369
To all: Here is a little blurp that probably explains as well as anything why the market just cant yet get its hands around this merger and its benefits. JDN Capital Market Comment January 18, 2000 Volume 6, Number 3 AOL, Intel, and Greenspan By Frank Mastrapasqua, Ph.D. THE MERGER: Why, what does it mean, and how do we value the new enterprise? These were some of the questions that Wall Street was asking after the announced AOL-Time Warner merger. Analysts who scurried about trying to put together the revenue, cash flow, earning and P/E ratios came to the less than profound conclusion that revenue growth at the new enterprise will slow from that of the AOL alone pace. The media attempted to question the motivations of the major players in both organizations and emphasized the defensive nature of the combination. The issues of content and distribution became the focus of the moment. It will be some time before a more comprehensive understanding of this combination will be discerned. In fact, the major participants themselves may not have fully conceptualized the nature of the new enterprise. However, we can be assured that Wall Street will attempt to put the square in the circle. Consequently, uncertainty will persist, and the regulatory environment promises to add to the market's confusion. The concept of joining content and distribution is likely to become one of the major investment themes for 2000. Over the ensuing months, the major participants in the Internet, telecommunications, media, and entertainment companies will be sorting out the most successful relationships that should be forged for the new environment. It is very unlikely that the Street will adequately comprehend, much less anticipate the nature of these relationships and the multiple benefits that will emerge in the broadband arena. Speed, creativity, vision, and perseverance promise to produce results that will not be apparent to many in the investment community until after the fact.