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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles R who wrote (87955)1/18/2000 5:59:00 PM
From: Epinephrine  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 1574446
 
Charles,

When Intel released their results recently you had exchanges with several thread members regarding the possibility that Intel had manipulated their numbers so that this quarter would look better than it otherwise would have. Given that many among us are hopeful that AMD had a great quarter but the analyst consensus estimates are still relatively low (as opposed to some of our hopes) I am very interested in hearing your analysis of the possibility that AMD might manipulate their numbers as well. Not to make this quarter better but instead to take some of the earnings from this quarter that exceed analyst expectations and push them out so that they can count on them for future quarters and thus build themselves a buffer to get through any possible future tribulations and still make estimates for that quarter. Is something like this even possible? And if so, what do you think are the chances that AMD might do something like this? In any event what do you think the markets response will be if results are not a blowout and what do you think the threshold would be for earnings to be considered a blowout? I have lurked on this thread for over a year and have come to greatly respect your opinions so any reply will be dearly appreciated.

Thanks,

Epinephrine

PS: Of course I have a great deal of respect for the opinions of many of the posters on this thread and would appreciate comments from everyone else as well :)



To: Charles R who wrote (87955)1/18/2000 6:45:00 PM
From: Goutam  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 1574446
 
Chuck,

Here is my weekly update of Athlon CPU prices and the ramp data based on the Pricewatch listings.

 Jan  17, 00

 Table 1 - AMD Athlon & Intel Coppermines  Lowest Prices / Listings - PriceWatch

         800       750       733       700      667      650      600     550      500
INTEL    -------- --------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- -------- --------
11-29-99                    $799,#14 $778,#20 $621,#22 $591,#22 $422,#117          $219,#101
12-06-99                    $789,#14 $777,#19 $609,#27 $584,#24 $417,#118 $311,#98 $219,#100
12-13-99                    $779,#17 $749,#20 $580,#24 $560,#22 $415,#112 $309,#95 $217,#98
12-20-99                    $778,#19 $727,#25 $576,#27 $559,#21 $415,#113 $308,#97 $227,#93
12-27-99                    $769,#20 $734,#26 $576,#28 $559,#23 $415,#111 $308,#95 $226,#98
01-03-00                    $769,#23 $730,#32 $576,#30 $559,#27 $419,#114 $303,#99 $223,#101
01-10-00                    $763,#26 $719,#30 $576,#30 $557,#31 $418,#113 $303,#99 $223,#99
01-17-00  No Show  No Show  $759,#28 $709,#30 $575,#29 $557,#32 $400,#109 $286,#91 $223,#96
INT-AMD                              $214,43% Higher   $260,88% $153,62%  $88,44%  $50,29%
INT = AMD                                 30% see below     47%      38%      34%      22%
01-17-00 765,#9  $633,#17           $495,#61          $297,#68 $247,#77  $198,#73 $173,#52
01-10-00 899,#2  $649,#15     A     $499,#58          $299,#63 $249,#74  $199,#72 $175,#54  A
01-03-00         $820,#11     M     $649,#54          $463,#64 $371,#71  $243,#70 $173,#55  M
12-27-99         $804,#12     D     $651,#54          $488,#65 $385,#72  $249,#72 $177,#56  D
12-20-99         $859,#9            $651,#55          $491,#66 $389,#73  $253,#73 $178,#58
12-13-99         $859,#6            $651,#50          $483,#67 $381,#72  $253,#74 $183,#50
12-06-99           A                $641,#48          $484,#68 $382,#72  $253,#69 $186,#50  A
11-29-99           M                $652,#40          $495,#65 $392,#68  $254,#68 $193,#52  M
11-22-99           D                $657,#41          $497,#64 $394,#67  $255,#68 $194,#51  D
11-14-99                            $669,#36          $504,#60 $401,#64  $256,#68 $197,#43
11-07-99                            $672,#29          $505,#53 $404,#56  $257,#61 $197,#39
11-02-99                            $674,#25          $505,#53 $404,#55  $257,#60 $197,#41

* INT=AMD == PIII %price drops required to match K7 prices

            Athlon CPU - Pricewatch 
     ("___" = $xxx - lowest price,  "***" = #xx = No. of  Listings)

    |_________________________($495, Jan 17,00)
    |_________________________($499, Jan 10,00)
    |________________________________($649, Jan 03,00)
    |_________________________________($651, Dec 27,99)
    |_________________________________($651, Dec 20,99)
    |_________________________________($651, Dec 13,99)
    |________________________________($641, Dec 06,99)
    |_________________________________($652, Nov 29,99)             20:1
    |_________________________________($657, Nov 22,99)
    |_________________________________($669, Nov 14,99)
    |__________________________________($672, Nov 07,99)
    |__________________________________($674, Nov 02,99)
    |********************************(#61, Jan 10,00)
    |******************************(#58, Jan 10,00)
    |******************************(#58, Jan 03,00)
    |****************************(#54, Dec 27,99)
    |****************************(#55, Dec 20,99)
    |*************************(#50, Dec 13,99)
    |************************(#48, Dec 02, 99)
    |***********************(#46, Nov 29,99)                         2:1
    |*********************(#41, Nov 22,99)
    |******************(#36, Nov 14,99)
    |***************(#29, Nov 07,99)
700 |*************(#25, Nov 02,99

    |_______________($297, Jan 17,00)
    |_______________($299, Jan 10,00)
    |_______________________($463, Jan 03,00)
    |________________________($488, Dec 27,99)
    |_________________________($491, Dec 20,99)
    |________________________($483, Dec 13,99)
    |________________________($484, Dec 06,99)
    |_________________________($495, Nov 29,99)
    |_________________________($497, Nov 22,99)
    |_________________________($504, Nov 14,99)
    |_________________________($505, Nov 07,99)
    |_________________________($505, Nov 02,99)
    |**********************************(#68, Jan 17,00)
    |********************************(#63, Jan 10,00)
    |********************************(#64, Jan 03,00)
    |*********************************(#65, Dec 27,99)
    |*********************************(#66, Dec 20,99)
    |**********************************(#67, Dec 13,99)
    |**********************************(#68, Dec 06,99)
    |*********************************(#65, Nov 29,99)
    |********************************(#64, Nov 22,99)
    |******************************(#60, Nov 14,99)
    |**************************(#53, Nov 07,99)
650 |**************************(#53, Nov 02,99

    |____________($247, Jan 17,00)
    |____________($249, Jan 10,00)
    |___________________($371, Jan 03,00)
    |___________________($385, Dec 27,99)
    |___________________($389, Dec 20,99)
    |___________________($381, Dec 13,99)
    |___________________($382, Dec 06,99) 
    |____________________($392, Nov 29,99)
    |____________________($394, Nov 22,99)
    |____________________($401, Nov 14,99)
    |____________________($404, Nov 07,99)
    |____________________($404, Nov 02,99)
    |****************************************(#77, Jan 17,00)
    |**************************************(#74, Jan 10,00)
    |*************************************(#71, Jan 03,00)
    |*************************************(#72, Dec 27,99)
    |*************************************(#73, Dec 20,99)
    |************************************(#72, Dec 13,99)
    |************************************(#72, Dec 06,99)
    |***********************************(#69, Nov 29,99)
    |**********************************(#67, Nov 22,99)
    |********************************(#64, Nov 14,99)
    |****************************(#56, Nov 07,99)
600 |****************************(#55, Nov 02,99

    |__________($198, Jan 17,00)
    |__________($199, Jan 10,00)
    |____________($243, Jan 03,00)
    |____________($249, Dec 27,99)
    |_____________($253, Dec 20,99)
    |_____________($253, Dec 13,99)
    |_____________($253, Dec 06,99)
    |_____________($254, Nov 29,99)
    |_____________($255, Nov 22,99)
    |_____________($256, Nov 14,99)
    |_____________($257, Nov 07,99)
    |_____________($257, Nov 02,99)
    |**************************************(#73, Jan 17,00)
    |*************************************(#72, Jan 10,00)
    |************************************(#70, Jan 03,00)
    |*************************************(#72, Dec 27,99)
    |*************************************(#73, Dec 20,99)
    |*************************************(#74, Dec 13,99)
    |***********************************(#69, Dec 06,99)
    |**********************************(#68, Nov 29,99)
    |**********************************(#68, Nov 22,99)
    |*********************************(#65, Nov 14,99)
    |*******************************(#61, Nov 07,99)
550 |******************************(#60, Nov 02,99)

    |_________($173, Jan 17,00)
    |_________($175, Jan 10,00)
    |_________($173, Jan 03,00)
    |_________($177, Dec 27,99)
    |_________($178, Dec 20,99)
    |_________($183, Dec 13,99)
    |_________($186, Dec 06,99)    
    |__________($193, Nov 29,99)
    |__________($194, Nov 22,99)
    |__________($197, Nov 14,99)
    |__________($197, Nov 07,99)
    |__________($197, Nov 02,99)
    |**************************(#52, Jan 17,00)
    |***************************(#54, Jan 10,00)
    |****************************(#55, Jan 03,00)
    |****************************(#56, Dec 27,99)
    |*****************************(#58, Dec 20,99)
    |*************************(#50, Dec 13,99)
    |*************************(#50, Dec 06,99)
    |**************************(#52, Nov 29,99)
    |**************************(#51, Nov 22,99)
    |**********************(#43, Nov 14,99)
    |********************(#39, Nov 07,99)
500 |*********************(#41, Nov 02,99)
    |-------------------------------------------------------------

Comments:

    [ Jan 10, 00 - Jan 17, 00]

o More resellers started listing Athlon CPUs near the lowest prices we saw
last week. We can pretty much conclude that these prices reflect
closely the forthcoming AMD cuts.

o The listings of Athlon 500 have been on a slow, but steady decline.

o The price differencec among 500 - 650 Athlons is very small and seems to
  be based on $1 per each MHz increase.

Goutama


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