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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Epinephrine who wrote (87956)	1/18/2000 6:28:00 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1574489

Epinephrine, <I am very interested in hearing your analysis of the possibility that AMD might manipulate their numbers as well. Not to make this quarter better but instead to take some of the earnings from this quarter that exceed analyst expectations and push them out so that they can count on them for future quarters and thus build themselves a buffer to get through any possible future tribulations and still make estimates for that quarter. > I think it is highly unlikely. <Is something like this even possible? And if so, what do you think are the chances that AMD might do something like this?> It is possible. If AMD thinks Q1 is going to be seriously down then they could move part of the Q4 to Q1. I would be looking for Q1 guidance to be sure. If Jerry says "flat" or "up" I would say there is absolutely no need for manipulation since people expect Q1 to be down. <In any event what do you think the markets response will be if results are not a blowout and what do you think the threshold would be for earnings to be considered a blowout? > I think anything in double digits will be considered blowout (consensus is "0.01"). However, a dime may not get the stock price anywhere given higher expectations from some folks (like Niles and the folks on SI/Yahoo/JC). A lot depends on where AMD's profits come at and what they say about future. I personally am expecting some number north of 0.30 and a very upbeat guidance. My thinking is that the stock is headed into 60s once all the major analysts update their year 2000 and 2001 forecasts. (based on an extremely conservative 20x 2000 estimates). I do not know if this will this happen on Thursday/Friday but I feel highly confident that this will happen before Q1 earnings. <I have lurked on this thread for over a year and have come to greatly respect your opinions so any reply will be dearly appreciated.> Thank you very much for the kind words. To wrap up, clearly I am very bullish about Q4 and 2000 but what I think probably makes very little difference to where the stock price ends up on Thursday. Chuck

To: Epinephrine who wrote (87956)	1/18/2000 8:28:00 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1574489

Re: "When Intel released their results recently you had exchanges with several thread members regarding the possibility that Intel had manipulated their numbers so that this quarter would look better than it otherwise would have. Given that many among us are hopeful that AMD had a great quarter but the analyst consensus estimates are still relatively low (as opposed to some of our hopes) I am very interested in hearing your analysis of the possibility that AMD might manipulate their numbers as well. " That is much too sensitive a question to ask this thread. They want only happy fluff about AMD. EP