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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Doppler who wrote (62994)	1/18/2000 11:02:00 PM
From: llwk7051@aol.com	Respond to of 152472

jblawson, Welcome to si. Cdma is projected to grow at just over 100% for next four years based on current subscribers and estimate of 700 million by 2004(you can find a post on other board that gives you a link to a chart showing 700 million number). If you assume a price decline of 25% a year and some loss of asic sales, you can easily justify a growth in earnings in 50 to 70 percent range for next four years. The analyst current estimates will be revised upwards if the earnings report goes as I expect. I am not even adding any amounts for other sources of revenue growth. Too simplistic an analysis, maybe, but qcom did get two strong buy recommendations today. The sell off is more portfolio balancing than any other factor in my opinion. That selling is already starting to dry up. Do some present value analysis and I think you will come to the conclusion that the current price is cheap if you think the growth will do as well or better than the above estimates. If a 30 percent growth is correct, you are correct in stating the value is too high. I just don't anticipate a growth rate that is less than 50% over the next four years. Robert

To: Doppler who wrote (62994)	1/18/2000 11:16:00 PM
From: Cooters	Respond to of 152472

jbl, I presume this is the same ML who busted on QCOM for several years while they were in bed with Ericy. We are seeing the same show in reruns with ML downgrading Globalstar after their client Iridium went under. You will encounter bitter feelings here quoting ML. Cooters

To: Doppler who wrote (62994)	1/18/2000 11:16:00 PM
From: jmanvegas	Respond to of 152472

jb: If I understand you correctly and we trade down to a 30-40 PE on QCOM (still above market norms), then QCOM could go as low as say $50-60/share or thereabouts. I'm assuming all other tech stocks would "crash" as well in your scenario based on PE readjustments. If that happens, and I'm not saying it won't or can't, we would enter one of the more devastating asset downsizings this country has ever seen. A severe recession bordering on a depression would occur and people would rise up to rid this country once and for all of the burdensome IRS code, inheritance taxes, capital gains taxes, liberal free-spending Democrats, and appointing old fogies in the Fed. Geez - come to think of it - it may be a good thing. Will it happen in a presidential election year - NAH!!!!! jmanvegas

To: Doppler who wrote (62994)	1/19/2000 12:13:00 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

>> Still, I think history shows us whether it is Japan in the 80's (90% drop from pe's that were less than tech is at now), Biotech from its last boom, or tulip bulbs 200 years ago, that abnormally high PE's DO trend back toward their historic values. I think your perception and stated approach is very prudent, JBL, and is one that is fully endorsed by the strategists at ML. Q is set to fall from these dizzying heights, and only the investors with money in hand will be in position to capitalize on it. The 200 dma is about 75 at this point, and would represent an excellent entry point. Just hang on to your cash until we get there. Buying at any higher level would be gambling. If you get itchy to buy, just remember the tulip bulb crash. uf