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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shasta23 who wrote (24840)	1/19/2000 3:10:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68364

Stefan, In as much as I am cautious at this point the current situation is not setting up for a big crash. We had a 10 percent pull back in the COMPX and then it rallied back very aggressively. The time frame of the move from October and the more recent move is the concern as the markets tend to fall faster than they rise and the rise has been almost vertical in nature. The fact that the number of stock below their 200 moving average remains in the 50's (we need Dorothy to confirm this) means the market is now overbought nor is it oversold. So a long as sector rotation remains in force we should advance or at worst range trade. As I pointed out to Dorothy I think Clint was using 12 sectors as a momentum indicator for the COMPX. When at least 5 of the sectors stopped advancing then there was a problem. The key is to chose the stocks in the sector carefully and keeping them current. This was something that he was very good at. I think we can glean what those sectors were from his watch lists. The SI portfolios have a interesting feature that will give you a composite increase on a group of stocks. The sector rotation list I have posted from time to time is similar in nature, but does not have the breadth of his list. On the other side, I have adopt elements of a system that I read about a few year ago. In that system the trader was out of the market when the 30 year rate were above the 6 month moving average. I adapted that to being above the 100 EMA as a sign for caution. Given your focus on a short time frame. It might be prudent to adopt a system where your reduce your exposure at these points, but keep some capital on the long side till the momentum indicator above stops signaling rotation. Till then you need to play hit and run in the stronger sectors. If you paper trade the system let me know your results. I still have no charts. I called Quotes Plus yesterday to order as it looked like the Web-based system has problems. The SI intra-day charts on the SP500 were messed up again today too. I feel a little blind right now. To add to the discussion, DJUA looks to be challenging in the 200 EMA and the upper down trend line. DJUA 200 day EMA = 299 100 day EMA = 293 50 day EMA = 288 DJTA failed the test of the 100 day EMA DJTA 200 day EMA = 3049 100 day EMA = 2991 50 day EMA = 2932 TYX 200 day EMA = 60.44 100 day EMA = 62.70 50 day EMA = 64.06 Upper 20 day Bollinger Band 67.58 Last 67.42 We look oversold on the bonds. It looks like the market has priced in a 50 basis point raise. So if we only get 25, the market will rocket up. The tendency has been to run the stock up before earnings and then sell the news indicates the nervous nature of the market partcipants. No one wants to stay too long. MOT fell because it missed revenue estimated. This was due to a parts shortage, but no one want to wait around for them to get it right. QCOM fell as a result, as it indicated they might miss, since they only get paid after a product is shipped. They don't get anything for unfinished handset, even if it is not their problem.