To: dfloydr who wrote (58688 ) 1/19/2000 9:06:00 AM From: SliderOnTheBlack Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 95453
That settlement is good news for FGH - "but" ~ I think the "jury" still has to be out; as FGH originally sought the merger with HLX to diversify into the ship building business; then apparantly announced a TOTALLY unexpected assest divestiture program and looks to be streamlining into a pureplay Rig Construction Company. The Street - doesn't know "how" to peg FGH yet - as FGH evidently isn't quite sure "what" it is yet ? How the hell do you think Dane feels ? He probably didn't know what hit him... (or, did he ? - in that case, then the HLX/FGH shareholders didn't know what hit them ?). Now; this "settlement" with Ocean Rig could dramatically ease what could have been a serious financial impact on FGH; perhaps they now do not have to dump the shipbuilding side ? - or, do they still ? This is a GREAT trader & those who lift the first layer of bread on all these "SPAMSANDWICHES" and do ANY fundamental analysis of what is ACTUALLY going on with FGH - and not rely on merely cut & paste innocuous Press Releases may be able to make a substantial amount of money (VBG). It "may" ultimately be the best thing that FGH could do - to stay a pureplay Rig Contractor and to not diversify into the highly competitive, lower margin shipbuilding side. But, don't think the Street is going to assign any "value" YET - for that potential eventuality; as who the hell knows what these guys are going to do ? and the $64 Question here; is - do they ?!?!?! ...Dane sure as hell didn't & he was going to become CEO in 2 years - the Street does NOT like this ambiguity - NOT at all. Untill a clearer commitment is forthcoming from FGH on the direction they will take - one must rely on the technicals here; as any substantial change in strategic direction could dramatically impact the stockprice in either direction. Surely; once FGH commits to a clear direction and shows some value & synergy from the merger; then perhaps this bases & firmly moves forward. Actually; I think there "may" be enough Net Asset Value & Earnings capacity for FGH to return to $8-$10, even $12 and base there; untill they show the Street the numbers indicative of higher valuations from either earnings, or new orders. So holding here may not be a bad play; as the worst case scenario was alleviated to a great degree by this Ocean Rig settlement. But; the major question going forward still looms; why did they buy HLX; if they are not moving into the shipbuilding industry ? Was this the financial nightmare that is appears to perhaps be on the surface; as FGH had clearly indicated they merged with HLX originally to ENTER & DIVERSIFY into the shipbuilding side ? What kind of charges they will have to take not just in the coming quarter; but potentially in the next 2,3,4 quarters as they sell off HLX assets ? - is a big, BIG looming cloud over this stock in my opinion. It's a trader surely; and surely this seems to be a good play for settling near $8ish without dramatic resistance; but, for those who own at $12 - $15, or even higher as many have indicated; it may be prudent to try to exit at the peak of the coming bounce; as FGH may have continued charges and the divestiture of the HLX assets may be a ceiling for the next year, or so for FGH to move substantially... The most intriguing part of this story - and potentially another theStreet.Com story in my opinion; is who ends up with HLX's shipbuilding assets ? You could allmost see a great book here... (VBG) - "whomever" buys these "HLX assets" at fire sale prices - could be getting the deal of a lifetime; unfortunately, maybe at the cost to both HLX & FGH shareholders who probably paid "top dollar" for those assets compared to potentially what they may ultimately be sold for ? ... and Dane is perhaps looking for a job in the shipbuilding business now isn't he ? - and surprise - surprise ! Those shipbuilding assets are now - potentially being spun out the "backdoor" now aren't they ?!?!?!?!?!?! How much do you think those shipbuilding assets might be worth in a future IPO at the peak of the next market cycle ? ...remember JL, had the perfect timing of bringing FGH public in the last sweetspot. Damn; this guy has to be a long lost cousin - we think so much alike... ...think about that one... The RICH GET RICHER ! ... talk about the "Teflon Don" - or, the "Slickster" ? Hey; has anyone seen JL in person; does he wear lots of hair gel ? Hey; maybe you just gotta give the guy credit - he lost $350+ Million or so on paper with the stockprice going from $40+ to $5; maybe he just found a way to make it back ???? ...but, will the shareholders be able to share in it (VBG)?