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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nichols who wrote (4739)	1/19/2000 5:15:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Respond to of 24042

Nichols, Thank you very much for all the due respect. I like due respect. But can I ask: Why does your message seem so heated? A while back, someone wrote to me that I was the "thread pariah." I'm thinking of having a lapel pin made with that on it. Heck, it's only money. Chill. Now, I will state again: 1. My holding period for JDS is considerably longer than 9 months. 2. I have not predicted "JDSU will nosedive." Never! You wrote that I "state some nonsense"--I have been rightly accused of this in the past by certain very wise people. However, you may wish to review some of my past writings. If you do, you will see that my message has been that with valuation so high in this and several other stocks, there is a great deal of vulnerability. And, I have written that the greatest danger is not to folks who bought before the p/e multiple exploded but accrues to the most recent purchasers. 3. I have always freely admitted that while I have urged caution the stock price has gone up. If a person ignored my caution and bought anyway, they would have made paper gains. I would not have bought though. 4. If read my postings with care you see that I am enthusiastic about FO and the position that JDS holds in that domain--I believe the numbers that indicate explosive growth for the next 5, 10, 20 years!!!! I "obviously don't understand the STORY"? Maybe I am missing something here. 5. A few days ago--close to the previous high--I sold all JDSU and booked over 1500% gain. I hope you are able to book such or much better. I simply I reckoned that the current conditions called for more than plain caution about what I have characterised as "chasing a stock upwards." I reckoned it was time to book and preserve my paper gains. Again, I hope you are able to do as well or better. For more of my thinking, check: aei.org 6. If JDSU (Toronto ex.) takes a big hit, I'll be back in again. (Note: I am not predicting it will take a big hit. Get it? I am again simply saying that the conditions currently lead me to book my gains.) Now, why am I here? You should thank me. Every time in the past when I have urged caution, the stock has gone to the upside with strength. Man! I should think you don't want me to go away. Finally, if my recent booking of gains turns out wrong, I will not hesitate to eat crow. After all, it's only money. Well, a big whack of money, but still it is only money. If I am right in selling recently, I've preserved a big whack of my capital. If my augury is wrong, I missed a bigger whack of money and I will be here to complement you and others who held on. It's only money. With all best wishes, David Todtman

To: Nichols who wrote (4739)	1/19/2000 5:55:00 PM
From: Michael Dean	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

It is important that we have reasoned arguments, such as David's, on both sides of the fence. JDSU will not maintain its growth rate forever - if it did it wouldn't be too many years before its value would exceed the total capital of the NYSE. (I didn't bother to calculate it, but I bet it's less than 30 years.) This won't happen, either the market will saturate, the company will stumble, or a technological breakthrough will obsolete its products. Whether we buy, sell or hold is based largely on how long before we see one of these happening, or perhaps on changes in our own investment objectives. I saw JDS early at about $5 (all split adjusted), watched it double and decided I had missed the boat. I finally bought in about Sept at about $55 and here we are at $212. I am a buy and hold investor, but sometime in the near future, I will end up selling at least some fraction of my holdings because it will have become too large a portion of my portfolio, even though I think this is currently the best stock I own. Knowing this, I am keen to hear all opinions so that I can time this reduction as best I can. What I don't like to see on any threads are unsubstantiated claims, personal attacks or unreasoned enthusiasm. So far this is a pretty good thread and has a fair amount of technical input from people in the Fiber and Telecom industries, as well as a variety of investment styles. Hope it stays that way and that David continues to be a Devil's advocate. Cheers, Mike