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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Bucks who wrote (33865)	1/19/2000 3:09:00 PM
From: Lone Star	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Look at NVLS comments for your preview. From memory, something like 1.5:1 book to bill, and did not Hill say 2000 to be a 70% increase ( revenue?) over 1999. While NVLS still just sell CVD, AMAT is already a force in inspection on acquisitions only 2 years old,just bought ETEC, expanding everywhere like the blob. Increasing their market presence in a rapidly expanding overall market. As to the cost of fabs, whats your point? If the markets are there, and they sure look to be, someone will build fabs to meet the demand. i'm just glad there isn't the mad dash at the first hint of a sustaained upturn like many prior times- maybe just maybe we won't overbuild this time. Naahhh- of course we will! ;)

To: Big Bucks who wrote (33865)	1/19/2000 11:40:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Big Bucks, Gottfried and Threaders, Following are the DW Weekly Bull percentages. Note that the Semiconductor Sector is at the 90% level. This is the highest that the SEMI's have been that I can recall. In July 1995 it reached 88%. Therefore, the SEMI sector is extremely overbought well over the 70% mark. Lester has posted that many times that AMAT falls regardless of earning, etc. after a Split. Maybe, Lester E. can update us. For those owning AMAT the second standard deviation from the mean is at a price of approx. $133. At this point aprox. 98% of AMAT price points are included range. With the current AMAT statistically speaking is in the remaining 2% of the bell shaped curve with its current price. Each of the individual holding AMAT at these prices, IMO, must make the decision to hold the stock and take the violatile ride of the SEMI sector which doubles approx. every two years or sell and try to pick it up lower or using spread buy a Gorilla stock which is a quality stock at a lower price and add additional share of the lower stock. From looking at the DW charts, it appears that AMAT follows a downturn of the Semi sector by 1 month. The leading indicators, NYSE and OTC are all up, something very positive. Wish I had held all my AMAT but CSCO and EM€ are doing well for me. Naturally, the above is only my opinions and the data which I have reviewed from the Dorsey Wright site, IBD and SEMI sites. Readers are reminded the old saving, "caveat emptor (buyer/reader beware)." The above is just provided as information for those holding AMAT. Paul SCROLL TO THE RIGHT TO SEE ALL THE DATA Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent 12/21/99 12/28/99 1/4/00 1/11/00 1/18/00 10week 36.91 10week 43.13 10week 38.09 10week 51.06 10week 52.75 LEADING INDICATOR #1 30week 27.54 30week 31.46 30week 28.96 30week 34.38 30week 35.59 LEADING INDICATOR #4 bpaero 39.7 bpaero 42.7 bpaero 46.3 bpaero 46.3 bpaero 40 bpasia 52.9 bpasia 62.7 bpasia 66.7 bpasia 68 bpasia 68.6 bpauto 35.9 bpauto 34.4 bpauto 33.3 bpauto 38.7 bpauto 40.9 bpbank 28.9 bpbank 27.4 bpbank 22.5 bpbank 20 bpbank 22 bpbiom 58 bpbiom 64.7 bpbiom 61.4 bpbiom 75.2 bpbiom 75.2 bpbuil 31.9 bpbuil 33.3 bpbuil 36 bpbuil 36 bpbuil 35 bpbusi 41.3 bpbusi 41 bpbusi 41.9 bpbusi 45.2 bpbusi 50 bpchem 41.4 bpchem 42.9 bpchem 44.9 bpchem 50 bpchem 48 bpcomp 61.4 bpcomp 62 bpcomp 62 bpcomp 59.5 bpcomp 65.5 bpdrug 40.5 bpdrug 45.2 bpdrug 47 bpdrug 67 bpdrug 69.6 bpelec 50.9 bpelec 52.4 bpelec 51.3 bpelec 50.2 bpelec 59.6 bpeuro 66.7 bpeuro 72.7 bpeuro 78.8 bpeuro 70.6 bpeuro 79.8 bpeuti 22.1 bpeuti 22.1 bpeuti 22.1 bpeuti 24.7 bpeuti 24.7 bpfina 38 bpfina 40 bpfina 38 bpfina 35.4 bpfina 36.4 bpfood 30 bpfood 28.7 bpfood 31.3 bpfood 36.1 bpfood 38.1 bpfore 59.2 bpfore 59.2 bpfore 59.2 bpfore 63.3 bpfore 57.1 bpgame 43.9 bpgame 47.5 bpgame 52.5 bpgame 51.2 bpgame 51.2 bpguti 45.9 bpguti 47.5 bpguti 47.5 bpguti 47.5 bpguti 49.2 bpheal 42.2 bpheal 41.2 bpheal 43.5 bpheal 56.3 bpheal 60 bphous 35.1 bphous 38.1 bphous 35.1 bphous 37.3 bphous 39.7 bpinet 49.46 bpinet 51.94 bpinet 48.14 bpinet 46.33 bpinet 49.19 bpinsu 28.6 bpinsu 29.3 bpinsu 29.2 bpinsu 35.4 bpinsu 35.4 bplati 55.8 bplati 61.5 bplati 57.7 bplati 61.5 bplati 71.2 bpleis 37.7 bpleis 39.3 bpleis 41.2 bpleis 43.4 bpleis 42.5 bpmach 35.4 bpmach 39.6 bpmach 40 bpmach 45.3 bpmach 44.2 bpmedi 68 bpmedi 66.7 bpmedi 55.2 bpmedi 57.3 bpmedi 60 bpmeta 41.9 bpmeta 43.2 bpmeta 51.4 bpmeta 49.3 bpmeta 49.3 bpnyse 36.2 bpnyse 38.6 bpnyse 37.9 bpnyse 40.1 bpnyse 42.6 NEW YORK STOCK EXCHG. bpoil 35.5 bpoil 37 bpoil 36.2 bpoil 40.1 bpoil 44.9 bpoils 33.7 bpoils 46.3 bpoils 41.5 bpoils 45.1 bpoils 59.8 bpopti 46.41 bpopti 49.54 bpopti 41.68 bpopti 48.46 bpopti 54.26 LEADING INDICATOR #2 bpotc 48.1 bpotc 50.6 bpotc 47.7 bpotc 50.2 bpotc 55.8 OVER-THE-COUNTER bpprec 32.6 bpprec 32.6 bpprec 34.9 bpprec 34.9 bpprec 30.2 bpprot 44.4 bpprot 45.7 bpprot 51.4 bpprot 48.6 bpprot 54.3 bpreal 29.3 bpreal 28.8 bpreal 28.8 bpreal 31.5 bpreal 32.1 bprest 25.6 bprest 25.3 bprest 25.3 bprest 26.6 bprest 34.2 bpreta 32.8 bpreta 32.8 bpreta 32.1 bpreta 32.7 bpreta 34.2 bpsavi 23.6 bpsavi 21.5 bpsavi 15.4 bpsavi 14.3 bpsavi 15.6 bpsemi 67.7 bpsemi 76.3 bpsemi 72 bpsemi 72.8 bpsemi 90.3 bpsoft 66.4 bpsoft 67.1 bpsoft 64 bpsoft 59.6 bpsoft 65.1 bpstee 33.3 bpstee 31 bpstee 38.1 bpstee 42.9 bpstee 41.5 bptele 60.7 bptele 61 bptele 54.1 bptele 57.4 bptele 66 bptext 30.1 bptext 31.4 bptext 30.1 bptext 30.3 bptext 29.6 bptran 34.5 bptran 34.5 bptran 32.2 bptran 36.8 bptran 37.9 bpwall 36 bpwall 36 bpwall 36 bpwall 34 bpwall 46 bpwast 23.2 bpwast 25.5 bpwast 29.6 bpwast 33.3 bpwast 37 HiLo 16.83 HiLo 18.4 HiLo 29.98 HiLo 41.07 HiLo 46.34 LEADING INDICATOR #3 NUMERICAL ORDER BELOW Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent MARKET, LEADING INDICATORS & 12/21/99 12/28/99 1/4/00 1/11/00 1/18/00 SECTOR BULL PERCENTAGES bpmedi 68 bpsemi 76.3 bpeuro 78.8 bpbiom 75.2 bpsemi 90.3 bpsemi 67.7 bpeuro 72.7 bpsemi 72 bpsemi 72.8 bpeuro 79.8 bpeuro 66.7 bpsoft 67.1 bpasia 66.7 bpeuro 70.6 bpbiom 75.2 bpsoft 66.4 bpmedi 66.7 bpsoft 64 bpasia 68 bplati 71.2 bpcomp 61.4 bpbiom 64.7 bpcomp 62 bpdrug 67 bpdrug 69.6 bptele 60.7 bpasia 62.7 bpbiom 61.4 bpfore 63.3 bpasia 68.6 bpfore 59.2 bpcomp 62 bpfore 59.2 bplati 61.5 bptele 66 bpbiom 58 bplati 61.5 bplati 57.7 bpsoft 59.6 bpcomp 65.5 bplati 55.8 bptele 61 bpmedi 55.2 bpcomp 59.5 bpsoft 65.1 bpasia 52.9 bpfore 59.2 bptele 54.1 bptele 57.4 bpmedi 60 bpelec 50.9 bpelec 52.4 bpgame 52.5 bpmedi 57.3 bpheal 60 bpinet 49.46 bpinet 51.94 bpprot 51.4 bpheal 56.3 bpoils 59.8 bpotc 48.1 bpotc 50.6 bpmeta 51.4 bpgame 51.2 bpelec 59.6 bpopti 46.41 bpopti 49.54 bpelec 51.3 10week 51.06 bpfore 57.1 bpguti 45.9 bpguti 47.5 bpinet 48.14 bpotc 50.2 bpotc 55.8 OVER-THE-COUNTER bpprot 44.4 bpgame 47.5 bpotc 47.7 bpelec 50.2 bpprot 54.3 bpgame 43.9 bpoils 46.3 bpguti 47.5 bpchem 50 bpopti 54.26 LEADING INDICATOR #2 bpheal 42.2 bpprot 45.7 bpdrug 47 bpmeta 49.3 10week 52.75 LEADING INDICATOR #1 bpmeta 41.9 bpdrug 45.2 bpaero 46.3 bpprot 48.6 bpgame 51.2 bpchem 41.4 bpmeta 43.2 bpchem 44.9 bpopti 48.46 bpbusi 50 bpbusi 41.3 10week 43.13 bpheal 43.5 bpguti 47.5 bpmeta 49.3 bpdrug 40.5 bpchem 42.9 bpbusi 41.9 bpinet 46.33 bpguti 49.2 bpaero 39.7 bpaero 42.7 bpopti 41.68 bpaero 46.3 bpinet 49.19 bpfina 38 bpheal 41.2 bpoils 41.5 bpmach 45.3 bpchem 48 bpleis 37.7 bpbusi 41 bpleis 41.2 bpbusi 45.2 HiLo 46.34 LEADING INDICATOR #3 10week 36.91 bpfina 40 bpmach 40 bpoils 45.1 bpwall 46 bpnyse 36.2 bpmach 39.6 bpstee 38.1 bpleis 43.4 bpoil 44.9 bpwall 36 bpleis 39.3 10week 38.09 bpstee 42.9 bpmach 44.2 bpauto 35.9 bpnyse 38.6 bpfina 38 HiLo 41.07 bpnyse 42.6 NEW YORK STOCK EXCHG. bpoil 35.5 bphous 38.1 bpnyse 37.9 bpoil 40.1 bpleis 42.5 bpmach 35.4 bpoil 37 bpoil 36.2 bpnyse 40.1 bpstee 41.5 bphous 35.1 bpwall 36 bpwall 36 bpauto 38.7 bpauto 40.9 bptran 34.5 bptran 34.5 bpbuil 36 bphous 37.3 bpaero 40 bpoils 33.7 bpauto 34.4 bphous 35.1 bptran 36.8 bphous 39.7 bpstee 33.3 bpbuil 33.3 bpprec 34.9 bpfood 36.1 bpfood 38.1 bpreta 32.8 bpreta 32.8 bpauto 33.3 bpbuil 36 bptran 37.9 bpprec 32.6 bpprec 32.6 bptran 32.2 bpinsu 35.4 bpwast 37 bpbuil 31.9 30week 31.46 bpreta 32.1 bpfina 35.4 bpfina 36.4 bptext 30.1 bptext 31.4 bpfood 31.3 bpprec 34.9 30week 35.59 LEADING INDICATOR #4 bpfood 30 bpstee 31 bptext 30.1 30week 34.38 bpinsu 35.4 bpreal 29.3 bpinsu 29.3 HiLo 29.98 bpwall 34 bpbuil 35 bpbank 28.9 bpreal 28.8 bpwast 29.6 bpwast 33.3 bpreta 34.2 bpinsu 28.6 bpfood 28.7 bpinsu 29.2 bpreta 32.7 bprest 34.2 30week 27.54 bpbank 27.4 30week 28.96 bpreal 31.5 bpreal 32.1 bprest 25.6 bpwast 25.5 bpreal 28.8 bptext 30.3 bpprec 30.2 bpsavi 23.6 bprest 25.3 bprest 25.3 bprest 26.6 bptext 29.6 bpwast 23.2 bpeuti 22.1 bpbank 22.5 bpeuti 24.7 bpeuti 24.7 bpeuti 22.1 bpsavi 21.5 bpeuti 22.1 bpbank 20 bpbank 22 HiLo 16.83 HiLo 18.4 bpsavi 15.4 bpsavi 14.3 bpsavi 15.6