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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (58724)	1/19/2000 3:03:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Big Bull - $30 crude thoughts & o/t Gary on WM - I love it! Bull; I am making damn sure I don't get caught with my pants down (there's an opening Jacques) - between aggressive trading & rotation here. Bull; I think we ramp on the News/Mania that $30 crude will bring - but; I will look at it as a selling/profit taking opp - all though a temporary one. Who knows how long it would last, or how far it would go ?Bottomline - THAT is when we need to trade on & to respect the TECHNICALS ! I've been a FA - bottoms up; value seeker here and trading the waves. But, $30 Crude will bring Mo-Mo $ here and who knows how high & how fast ? Maybe OSX 120 in a straight line ? maybe even higher over 3-4 mos - 140 was near old highs with $22 Oil; so who knows ? Maybe it starts a 3 month run , maybe its a 2 week spike ? But, the minute I see the stoch's, MACD's etc signaling any weakening - I plan to sell - take profits and to find hopefully; some still cheap small/micro caps... or, to take profits on ALL margin & only hold 85-100% cash positions & then add margin on buying the dips & hopefully repeat the cycle again... O/T GaryB; Some S&L's are below the Oct 98 - Long Term Capital & Mortgage Backed Securtites led - total market crash levels... this is simply wrong ! They are making money, lots of it here. While it seems commonsensical that they go lower yet on any Fed Hikes - and the odds being good we see some Fed Hikes; you would think they could go 10-15% lower ? But, if they do - it would be the equivalent of $15 BJS imho ! I am sooooo tempted to dip a toe in here. Looking at some options as well. What I really cant ignore was that spike through low $30's in November. This can break out 35-50% very quickly here if the finanacials catch the wind at their back. If we don't see a Fed Hike - these are the single best buys in the entire market - on a risk vs, reward basis - simply phenomenal buys here and I don't see anything close ! If I thought the Fed would not hike; I would own 50% S&L's and 50% Oils... nothing else. I'm thinking a 25-35% entry here is still prudent.. thanks for your WM technical look.