To: John F. Poteraske who wrote (936 ) 1/19/2000 5:42:00 PM From: Bucky Katt Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 48461
That one is ok to use, but is pretty basic for serious business, and I will say I started with that one about 6 years ago. Then I found the power of the Intel micro-chip! My stuff takes into consideration t/a of both the stock & warrant, things like stochastics, Chaikin oscillator, MACD, OBV, NVI, RSI MFI, slope, etc, plus the other factors I mentioned, and applies a division factor between the common & the derivative, be it an option or warrant. For the ONSSW's, it implies a value of 1.71 when the stock hits 4. The bigger % gain is obvious. I happen to own both. The higher value is due to the long time factor (548 days) and the low float (1 mil) of the warrant, not to mention the low float of the stock, which is all taken in and used in the calculation. Throw in the fact that every micro-cap stock/warrant I have touched in the last few months has gained from 100-1400%, I don't see why this pair will have any different outcome, heck the stock & warrant is up well over 100% already. For reasons I don't fully understand, this thing works about 80% of the time, which in this business is almost a lock. I postulated way back when the Rande Is thread was brand new about warrants, and how they sometimes trade as seperate entities from time to time. They are less dangerous than options, at any rate. Everybody uses Black/Sholes, so I had to invent something to give me an edge. One of those guys was partly to blame for the Long Term Capital mess, so so much for that genius trust. They never factored VAR, value at risk, into their LTCM piggy bank. Mainly because the stuff they held was not hedgeable because it was so exotic to begin with. Just for fun, run a chart back to August on SFO+ or SFOWS or SFO_t, or whatever your system requires for the SFO warrant. Quite a move.. Yes, I posted it back in August...