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To: JBL who wrote (91565)	1/20/2000 10:54:00 AM
From: Tom Kearney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

JBL - Since 1928, have you noticed any differences in the structure of the economy?

To: JBL who wrote (91565)	1/20/2000 12:13:00 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

JBL <Greek tragedy> SIer's will have a front row seat.

To: JBL who wrote (91565)	1/20/2000 12:34:00 PM
From: Greater Fool	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

One thing that makes Mr. Greenspan's job so hard is that the effect of rate increases on stock market valuations is heavily non linear. If the market were rationally valued, the effect would be linear, but I think it's generally agreed that investors aren't doing discounted cash flow projections to value stocks -- so rate increases don't have much of an effect. What will happen is that Mr. Greenspan will nudge up rates, a bit at a time, and then suddenly investor sentiment will collapse. Like the proverbial straw breaking the camel's back. I'm in utilities now, and I wonder how interest rate or market sentiment sensitive these stocks are.

To: JBL who wrote (91565)	1/20/2000 12:44:00 PM
From: Greater Fool	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Two things affect the market: investor sentiment and dilution. Dilution comes from the freed-up restricted shares and, more importantly, IPOs. Not only are VCs rushing to fund startups and get them to market, the mechanism for bringing IPOs to market is getting more efficient. That may provide a soft landing for this market -- the IPOs gradually dilute the valuations down to a more reasonable level. However, there is a limit: aren't stock symbols restricted to four characters? Assuming numeric aren't allowed, that only allows 26 x 26 x 26 x 26 combinations, or 457,976 companies. Given the current pace of IPOs, we may run out of company names pretty soon.