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To: Pescador7 who wrote (1035)1/20/2000 8:18:00 AM
From: RocketMan  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 35685
 
I followed a similar strategy at the start of the year, when I guessed that qcom would correct quite a bit. I sold common and bought leap calls on the way up, and bought near term puts close to the top. When the correction came my puts appreciated, I sold them close to the bottom and bought some more leap calls. However, I guessed right that the market was ripe for correction. Everything was in place: huge run-up at year end, people not wantint to sell due to taxes until the start of the year, and signs of a blowoff top.

Personally, I don't think the signs are there this time. It is too much of a gamble, so I am not going to do anything, just hold on to what I have and ride it down if another correction comes. It seems to me that this time there is no reason for a correction in Feb other than people are expecting one, so it probably will not happen. The interest rate hike is already in the market, at least 25 points and even more. The fed is not going to announce their bias, so that will not have any effect. Qcom is already down 20% for the year. And there is still a lot of money on the sidelines waiting for a correction that will jump in if it does not come, as well as short positions being built.

So I am a contrarian on this one, I say no significant correction until mid-March when people start raising money to pay taxes.

BWDIK



To: Pescador7 who wrote (1035)1/20/2000 9:21:00 AM
From: Poet  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 35685
 
Pescador,

Welcome to the porch.

I think your strategy is very very well-considered and wise. It's just about point-for-point what I'm planning to do. :)



To: Pescador7 who wrote (1035)1/20/2000 9:40:00 AM
From: AmericanVoter  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 35685
 
Pescador7, I've been doing something similar (not with Q though)... I do not sell calls though as that requires identifying a possible top, which I can not... and I add some requirements when I do that...

the most important is that the effective cost if assigned is at or close to a strong support level...

and to explain the other factors I look at...

let

P be the premium/share to be collected on selling the desired put
C be the current price of the underlying
E be the effective cost of the underlying if assigned

now,

tied money to every $1000 collected on selling puts = (1000*E)/P

tied money if the stock is bought to tied money if options are sold (T) = C/E

if T < 1... I buy the underlying
and if T > 1 and I am tying up less money than I collect if I sell puts... then I sell puts...

I apply this to some stocks I follow, but somehow Q's premiums have not gotten to work in my favor yet, so, I just hold the underlying...

examples of where the above is working are RAD and XRX (both are down in the dumps at this time) and it worked last year with CMGI when it dropped to the 80's and the Jan02 200 premium was 123/125

best regards
amein



To: Pescador7 who wrote (1035)1/20/2000 4:40:00 PM
From: candide-  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 35685
 
It looks like the correction parade is beginning

Barton Biggs stating on CNBC this afternoon that the market "looks scary" ...

Bonds are an incredible value and look for undervalued equities...