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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (58761)	1/20/2000 10:57:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Trading; re: why I am waiting on $20-21 BHI etc. BJS - downgraded here folks = a trend We are still in a trading mode here imho. We will continue to bounce between a rolling trading range that is moving up in a stairstep fashion; this gives great opportunities to anyone willing & able to have a "feel" for the tape here... I have felt this very strongly; that the "Mo-Mo" fav's here - BJS SII CAM WFT are a bit ahead of the fundamentals - even in an expectations mode here... We are seeing some downgrades on "price" here - which is good & bad news. It is bad news if you didn't take profits on this run; but it is good news longterm as the expectations are still high; merely that the buying accelerated here a bit ahead of the fundamental's actual momenteum. MichaelH questioned me on why I would think I could get BHI at $20-21 here, or why I wondered why anyone would be still buying BHI, or SII CAM WFT etc "here" ? Well, its because we had Fidelity buying very large over a couple of days / remember the Big 3 got about 7-8 Million shares in that one day over the avg trading volume; and we were destined to retrace off of merely a lack of high volume buying - not that anyone was really looking to dump these stocks here... They were pushed up rapidly as some large funds made solid entries here. We also usually retrace a bit right after earnings season. The laggard story is still one to play; as is the E&P story which has the bottomline fundamentals forming a huge coiled spring here; and the E&P sector will have among the best earnings performance of any sector reporting here in Q1-2. We are at resistance in many OSX issues that will only be broken by a sure of Crude over $30 - which could happen easilly, or by bottomline performance - which won't be seen for another 3 months... I think the play is in the fundamentally undervalued E&P's - who still have 35-50% upside to just their Sept highs - which many OSX names just pierced... Take those Mo-Mo profits and rotate into these E&P's who are just ramping on the fundamental side with Nat Gas recovering so strong here of late & crude pushing $30. Remember; the E&P's reap the rewards of this commodity price environment today ! - they don't need a cap ex commitment from Big Oil down the road; they ring the cash register on these prices daily ! PTEN getting some strong interest - land drillers may be the only mo-mo niche that still has some strong wind at its back imho in the driller/service sector. I am waiting for : BHI $20-21 DO $28-9 PGO/VTS - on any weakness here - a buck lower & I start buying heavy again - great traders as well - good volatility. UFAB - here and on ANY weakness FLC/GLM - along with DO - the cheapest drillers - 7.5% down from here - I am a strong buyer... UPR cheap here, OEI - I've taken some profits on of late, still some in the LT drawer, NBL EOG LD COG - prime Nat Gas plays, taken heavy profits on VPI as well, and I love XTO - the most undervalued/low risk exploitation play in E&P land... I own near $8 on full throttle margin and I aint selling below $12 - this is my "you can't touch this" stock... could easilly do $4.00 cfps & $1.00 EPS in 2000 and was sitting at $8ish here - now moving on $10; $12 is a chip shot and this WILL see $15 in 2000 - bank on it; and is fundamentally supported as a $20 stock on merely a historc cfps multiple of 5 x cfps of $4 -= $20; this is my Home Run stock - accross Waveland Avenue baby.... Small caps have run well, I hold a little CRK, RRC, RGO - great balance sheet & oily - moved big here, a little TMR - like the technicals, IIR, WG on the service side - I am keeping these as a small cap basket for long term presently - but;for trading and large positions; I like my risk/reward on margin and am focusing on the stocks over $5 here, doubling my upside ... Any trading/buying idea's out there folks ? TCMS - has some high risk potential; they need some cash to satisy bank covenants I believe ?, but people worry on dilution etc... any comments on TCMS - I haven't followed it that closely of late ?