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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mtnlady who wrote (15751)	1/20/2000 11:17:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Yes, the eWorld thread did a lot of discussion - or at least my memory of posts I made on that thread way back when - in terms of the various gorillas under the umbrella of enterprise application software. I also was involved in a lot of discussion about this space on the listserv Gorilla Game group run by Bill Meade. On that list, Geoff joined the discussion and talked about that the gorillas and dominant application-software companies going into the transition of web, B2B and e "needs" would most likely come out pretty healthy on the 'other' side of the transition in favor of the smaller start up companies. I don't have my revised manual within reach and I'm too lazy to go retrieve it, but I seem to remember the manifestos for enabling technology gorillas and in particular the manifesto for application-software gorillas. I don't want to paraphrase, but due to my laziness - I am going to have to do it. I believe the authors indicated that application-software gorillas should indeed be a part of, or even the the major part of, gorilla game portfolios. Now that's really paraphrased and I would welcome any criticism of that wording. Regardless, my concentrated focus on this entire space and how to 'build it' since my portfolio over the years has increased where the majority had become hardware, system software and semiconductors due to the obvious biggies in those categories growth or return on my initial investment. I had purchased Siebel and i2 in 1998, but they didn't do too in terms of my other holdings. We had discussed on the eWorld thread about Siebel, Oracle, SAP, i2, IBM, Ariba, Commerce One, ICGE, SFE as well as others and how each could capture and embrace various parts of the Internet via B2B, web application solutions, etc... and how large the pie was going to be for all of these possibilities. In the meantime, the price appreciation in most of them have been nothing short of astounding and it brings tears of joy to my eyes.<ggg> Something like i2 going from below the $20 range to $250. Of course we know Siebel's run. And Oracle's run. And the B2B plays rocket. And SAP's double since last year. We've seen deal after deal after deal announced in press releases from all of these companies - each time igniting share price appreciation. Rather than having to 'balance' my portfolio by adding more shares of all of these - it happened on its own over the past 6 to 8 months. I know that discussion of these matters is not appreciated by all on this particular board, but the fact of the matter remains that a huge part of the gorilla game in the enterprise application (whether it is front office, back office, supply chain or a hybrid) is undergoing one of the most exciting transitions in terms of gorilla gaming. I continue to spend a lot of time, effort and energy understanding it because it is real money, real time and unfolding on almost a daily basis. Predictions that B2C issues which had captured the market's attention in 1998 and 1999 being overtaken by B2B in the second half of 1999 and in 2000 certainly are ringing true as predicted. Some of the enterprise application gorillas have prepared themselves better going into the transition and are really starting to hit their stride striking deals not only in B2B, but all avenues of web based computing and solutions needs. I came to my own conclusion that some form of a 'basket' approach was the way to invest in the transition. Luckily, I already held several of the positions from way back. BB