Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SargeK who wrote (58780)	1/20/2000 11:58:00 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

(OT), SargeK, when FGH is at 5 you're noticeably absent, but when it hits 8 in a matter of 3 days you come back to SI and scream buy, buy, buy. Just like an analyst...you're "upgrading" FGH after it's risen 40%. Congrats on the great call. LOL.

To: SargeK who wrote (58780)	1/20/2000 12:38:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

Any trading comments on the OSX weakness/retrace today ? MichaelH - I'll get my $20-21 ish BHI - watch (VBG). I'm trolling for some individual opps; in OSX land I think DO FLC GLM are the cheap drillers; any substantial retrace in ANY land driller is a good play, I like BHI as a temporary valuation anomaly between peers SLB/HAL here, like PGO/VTS a lot on ANY weakness here. UFAB is "the" risk vs. reward Fab play here imho... again, they don't need huge cap ex commitments from the majors to reach near full "earnings" capacity & I love the way their CEO was talking earlier... Still an E&P risk vs. reward play here - tilted way in their favor here; NBL EOG LD COG - for "gassy names" UPR PXD for more balance & XTO is my fav' here on a risk vs. reward basis. Small caps are doing well - IIR & WG group popped, GIFI broke out etc. Small cap E&P's as well looking good. ... I think for anyone who sold on that one day spike ( was I the only one (VBG ?) - this is yet another opp to "re-load" cheaper and let the next leg build & see how hard & far it wants to run... the weather is great for Nat Gas drawdowns & we may see some nice stats next week for gas. EOG UPR cheap today, NBL getting lots of nice Institutional buying over the last few days - get this "gem" while you can - a core/must own imho in ANY E&P portfolio, they are dramatically upping cap ex in 1H 2000 - to 1H 1999 - they will easilly crush comparables - remember this ! When NBL reports Q1-Q2 2000 - they'll be a breakout play - buy this one NOW ! - $20-$22 is a gift. GaryB - WM now $$21 ish !!!!... damn, I gotta nibble here; these damn S&L stocks are incredibly cheap and the fudamentals are excellent. WM's breakout of 30% allmost overnight in October is what intrigues me here. I don't want to not be "in" here; if the Fed does not hike in FEb. I WILL margin WM - and "if" the Fed does NOT hike in Feb - this has to be a 30% runner = 60% on margin ! If the Fed does hike rates - that sentiment is virtually allready priced into bonds and the stock... how much further can it go ? SargeK - buy this damn stock and sleep well Buckwheat - remember this; $21, $19, $17 - sub $17 sell everything you own to own this stock... remember the Shiek that got rich buying Citicorp at the last bottom of the financial's trough... ? I honestly have 5,6 small cap S&L's with good dividend returns ! - and I KNOW they are 50% to DOUBLES in the bank - only a matter of time.... This sector has got the hair standing on the back of my arm... this is like buying $18 RIG here folks ! If WM & the financials/S&L's retrace much more here - I honestly will start trimming Oil's... options on WM not that cheap yet... but, man what a LT play this is... 6 months out; WM will be $30-5 and could be $45 by year end... this is a thinking man's "MARGIN" play here shortly imho --- this may be my easiest "margined" double.... In today for my first buy @ $21 11/16ths... looking at options sub $20 - this is BETTER than the fall of 1998 Oilpatch plays with $10 crude - because the S&L's are making money hand over damn fist here - and setting new low's - this actually makes me incredulous ! Something has gone wrong in the market people ! I am a "30-something" young man ( same age as SargeK's grandkids(VBG); I see the insanity in the Net and in the total "momenteum" movement that has engulfed this marketplace - this scares the $hi^ out of me & I wasn't in the market in 1987. Margin use now is at it's highest level ever - only surpassed by Oct 1987 ! - that ought to get someone's attention, but it isn't... It's a new paradigm .... so were Tulips... It's not so much that these micro iNet stocks only 5 mos. post IPO quadruple in 3 days that boggles my mind - but, equally it boggles my mind that the Institutional Investors have taken their eye of the "fiduciary responsibility" mandate that they should recite daily; and have "bought into this BS , hook, line & sinker... They have just dumped solid, fundamental stories here at ridiculous prices to jump on this momenteum wagon. Louis Navalier was on CNBC this am and made a great point. He really capsulized the ENTIRE mindset this am of this marketplace. He is extremely concentrated in a few stocks - those with earnings momenteum - once anyone misses estimates - they are dumped - totally blown out; GE is the prototypical play here - earnings momenteum, not necessarially huge growth, but Cisc & GE type of dependablity.... this is WRONG. It is working now; but when it fails - NO ONE will get out quick enough... I don't know if the market can reshuffle the money smoothly enough not to trigger another crisis; but for value players, there is some real opportunity here, historic opportunity imho. Some of these S&L's are below the Oct 1998 Market Crash levels here - can you beleive that ? Sheer Insantity - the last time I got this fired up - was when BJS was $15, FLC $5, remember those days, remember who it felt - well people ! - as Yogi says; in S&L land - "it's Deja Vu all over again" !