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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (88576)	1/20/2000 3:16:00 PM
From: steve harris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1573130

Tenchusatsu , no rant taken, I couldn't believe the prices either. My first impression was, "gee! I may have to build a new computer earlier than I wanted too" Was nothing mentioned about Jerry buying all the unused mobos? I was hoping to upgrade my Celeron, but "you guys" can't flood the market yet. :o) I was betting Intel would dump the slot 1, just to get rid of it. But, on the other hand, ASP was ok 4Q, we will see what the ASP is in 1Q. AMD having outstanding yields, with a little surplus, that's what pulled Gateway and HP to the table? Interesting times we live in. Would you consider buying an Athlon? steve

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (88576)	1/20/2000 3:24:00 PM
From: Pravin Kamdar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573130

Tenchusatsu, I believe that AMD is demand limited with the Athlon (they made 1 million and sold 0.8 million). AMD probably has the capacity to make 3x in Q1 than they sold in Q4. They have to slash prices to stimulate demand. Pravin.

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (88576)	1/20/2000 3:33:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573130

Tench, Re:"Athlon pricing" Yes, i agree they are demand limited. They can surely produce 2-3M Athlons for Q1. I can only see them selling $1.5-2M. Their only way out is do ship large quantities at highest speed grades is 800 and forthcoming 850/900. regards, Kash

To: Tenchusatsu who wrote (88576)	1/20/2000 5:57:00 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1573130

Tench, re:<AMD's priority is to hurt Intel more than to make the most amount of money. Either that, or AMD is more demand-limited than I thought.> Obviously it is more demand limited, based on the inventory numbers that Sanders gave. IMO, the price discrepancy between the top end (700 - 800 MHz) and the middle (550 - 650) is way beyond normal historical relationships. When the 486DX2-66 came out, it was the fastest chip on the block and you could buy a motherboard/cpu combo for $600. If the ASP was $245 for Q4, then AMD must have been forced to sell 75% of their chips at the two lowest speed grades (500 and 550). My guess is that demand for a 700 MHz Athlon is twice as high at $475 as it is at $700. People and companies are willing to spend $200 to get 100 higher MHz, but not $400. As for Q1, I expect 1.5M Athlons will be sold at an ASP of $220. If the K6-2+ is available in volume by mid February above 500 MHz, I expect K6 volume to be 3.5M at $60 ASP. If K6-2+ is not timely, I expect 3M K6's at $50 ASP. Scenario 1: 1.5M Athlon @220 = 330M, 3.5M K6 @ $60 = $210M Scenario 2: 1.5M Athlon @220 = 330M, 3M K6 @ $50 = $150M Scenario 1 gives a small increase to revenue for the CPG group, scenario 2 gives a small decrease. Petz