To: W Shakespeare who wrote (374 ) 1/21/2000 12:31:00 PM From: Rob S. Respond to of 413
I called the company and talked with management this morning for almost an hour. Here is what I determined: As we already know, procedures (sales) in October were flattish, in NOV & DEC they were up nicely. January, as expected, is off DEC's pace but looking OK so far. LVCI sees itself as the low cost major provider. As the industry matures they expect further consolidation and probable opportunities will emerge to expand through acquisitions. That is still just speculation but a reasonable one. LVCI does conservative accounting. There are no expected write-offs and no longer-term balloons in amatorization of costs, as is the case with some others in the industry. So while bombs may be going off at VISX and elsewhere, the ground (accounting methods used) looks stable under LVCI. There is some pricing adjustments being seen but there is also some "elasticity of demand". That means that when prices come down it stimulates more people to do the procedures. As a result, sales and profits grow. For the near term this will offset the pricing pressure adjustments needed in analysts models. In the longer term it fits with projections for long-term expansion of the industry. Given this scenario, which company is best positioned to take advantage of it? LVCI is the low cost, most flexible, quality provider. The net effect of the maturation of the industry is that LVCI will do comparatively well. And doing well in a growth industry isn't a bad place to be. IMO, this is a fine time to pick up shares - while there is deep concern (panic) because of troubles at competitors who have not built their business on a flexible and low cost model. Hang in there or better yet buy more at this level. By the time that earnings are released you won't see near this price again.