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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (37703)	1/20/2000 5:25:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 99985

the tight labor market pressures Greenie likes to talk about so much erupting? i suppose we will see a lot of muscle-flexing by the unions in future...it has already started in Europe.

To: Terry Whitman who wrote (37703)	1/20/2000 6:24:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

inflation watch: from the WSJ: WASHINGTON -- The international trade deficit widened again in November as a flood of foreign cars and consumer goods pushed imports to an all-time high. Meanwhile, the Labor Department said Thursday that the number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits dropped an unexpected 39,000 in the week ended Saturday, indicating the tightest job market in 30 years continues to constrict. The trade gap swelled to a record $26.5 billion, the Commerce Department said. Economists surveyed by Thomson Global Markets expected the trade deficit to reach $26 billion. The government revised its estimate for October's gap to $25.56 billion from the $25.94 billion previously reported. Imports, which have been strong all year, climbed 1.4% to a record $109.4 billion, reflecting robust U.S. demand for foreign cars, business equipment, and consumer goods ranging from clothing to household appliances and a rising oil import bill. "The good times keep rolling for U.S. consumers. Cheaper-priced imports help keep inflation at bay and satisfy Americans' insatiable demand for goods," said Mike Fenollosa, an economist with John Hancock. Exports rose 0.7% to a record $82.9 billion as demand for U.S. products overseas picked up after being severely depressed by the Asian financial crisis. Sales of telecommunications equipment, semiconductors, TV sets and VCRS, and industrial supplies all rose. Sales of civilian aircraft slipped, however. "The pickup in exports is positive because it helps pay for our import bill and it helps U.S. manufacturers," Mr. Fenollosa said. The November figures for the goods and services trade gap put the deficit for 1999 at $244.6 billion. Assuming the December trade gap posts only the average deficit in 1999, it would put the annual gap above $266 billion, well ahead of 1998's record of $164.28 billion. The trade deficit set a record eight out of the 11 months in 1999 as the lingering effects of a global financial crisis could not counteract unabated demand from U.S. consumers for inexpensive imports. The November trade report showed that the U.S. deficit with China narrowed by 9% to $6.49 billion. The gap with Japan also narrowed by 11% to $6.37 billion. The year-to-date deficits with both trading partners continued well ahead of last year's pace, however. The cumulative trade gap with Japan reached $67 billion in November, 15% wider than the same time last year. The year-to-date deficit with China was $63.1 billion, expanding 19% from a year earlier. America's deficit with Germany soared by 29% to a record $3 billion in November as imports from that country jumped to an all-time high. The trade gap with countries of the European Union, with whom the U.S. is embroiled in a number of trade disputes, widened by 19% to $5.32 billion. Through November, the shortfall with the EU totaled $39.8 billion, up 65% over the same period a year earlier. A record $18.1 billion in imports from Canada helped push the U.S. trade 10% wider in November to $3.25 billion. The trade gap with Mexico expanded by 21% to $1.7 billion. American's foreign oil bill rose 0.9% to $7 billion in November as crude oil prices hit their highest level since January 1997. The average price of a barrel of crude oil rose to $20.90. Separately, initial jobless claims declined to 272,000 in the week ended Jan. 15, lowering the four-week moving average to 292,000. The drop in claims surprised Wall Street, which had expected a much more modest decline. Economists surveyed by Thomson Global Markets expected claims to reach 293,000. The previous-week's report was revised to show claims reached 311,000 from a previously reported 309,000.