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To: John Graybill who wrote (50373)1/20/2000 6:05:00 PM
From: John Graybill  Respond to of 53903
 
FWIW, does anybody else think that shorting MUEI from 12 1/2 back down to its inevitable low of 10 (a 20% drop) is more of a slam dunk than shorting MU at 70 for a 20% drop to 56 or below?

Running MUEI up to 13 in the days before expiration on the tired CPQ/DELL/IBM/HP buyout rumor is about as big a "Kick Me!" sign as one could ask for.

Blowoff protection in the form of a call spread is kinda prohibitive, though -- the expected gain out of the short is only a strike price, and you would pay nearly half of that for a 12 1/2 - 15 spread. Oh, so tempting.

---------

p.s. on the February matter: send me an email -- john.graybill at siliconinvestor.com -- and I'll mail out the charts for the period.



To: John Graybill who wrote (50373)1/20/2000 6:46:00 PM
From: TREND1  Respond to of 53903
 
MU has dropped from 78 3/8 to 69 1/2, so from a probability point of view "most" of drop is over.
90% probability of some kind of bottom either Friday or
Monday.
Larry Dudash



To: John Graybill who wrote (50373)1/20/2000 6:49:00 PM
From: TREND1  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
John
This current MU drop is very normal.
Right in the middle of the "normal probability distribution"
Larry Dudash