To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (91640 ) 1/20/2000 7:14:00 PM From: GST Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
The economy is 'on fire' -- prepare the fire hose: Thursday January 20, 6:58 pm Eastern Time WRAPUP-U.S. trade deficit widens to new record (Adds comment on currencies) By Adam Entous WASHINGTON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit ballooned to a new record in November, fueled by brisk consumer demand, surging imports from Canada and Europe and the highest oil prices in nearly three years. Defying predictions of an improvement in the nation's trade imbalance, the deficit shot up to $26.50 billion in November from $25.56 billion in the previous month, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. The report gives fresh ammunition to protectionist forces ahead of next November's election. They see surging imports as a threat to American jobs. Some analysts warned that the deficit was unsustainable and could undercut the dollar. Generally, the value of the dollar against other world currencies suffers when the trade gap rises because it means Americans will send more dollars abroad to pay for their imports than the country will be drawing in from sales of exported goods. Imports of foreign-made cars, telecommunications equipment, computer accessories and other products surged to an unprecedented $109.39 billion in November. Imports were driven by the booming U.S. economy as consumers plunged into the holiday shopping season, overshadowing record exports of $82.89 billion. ``Once again imports remain on fire,' said Kathy Bostjancic, a senior economist at Merrill Lynch Government Securities in New York. ``Until imports start to temper a bit, the gap is going to widen.' Other experts predicted a turnaround in the months ahead, amid expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would raise interest rates when policymakers meet on Feb. 1-2 to prevent the economy from overheating. Separate government reports released on Thursday offered further evidence of U.S. economic strength. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped by 39,000 in the week ended Jan. 15 to 272,000 from 311,000 the week before, the Labor Department said. A Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey found that the mid-Atlantic region's manufacturing sector expanded in January but at a slower pace. Market reaction to the reports was muted. The nation's trade deficit has been on a tear over the last year, setting new records month after month. Wall Street analysts had expected the deficit to shrink to $25.7 billion in November instead of continuing to swell. November's report reflected record imports from key U.S. markets, specifically Canada and western Europe. Analysts attributed the surge to the vigor of the U.S. economy compared to relative weakness abroad. With an economic boom underway, U.S. consumers have been on a spending spree, snapping up foreign cars, electronic goods and other imports ahead of the Christmas shopping season. But they said the deficit could become a source of economic trouble. ``As the trade deficit continues to send dollars abroad, the exchange rate is likely to decline, although this will probably be slow and rather orderly,' said National Association of Manufacturers economist Gordon Richards. ``A collapse in the dollar, one of the scenarios that has been feared in financial markets, remains extremely unlikely.' IMPORTS SOAR The Commerce Department said the trade gap with Canada soared to $3.25 billion in November, up from $2.94 billion in the previous month, as imports of cars and other goods surged to an all-time high of $18.13 billion. Shipments from Western Europe rose to a record $19.96 billion in November, pushing the deficit to $5.53 billion, up from $5.04 billion in the previous month. Imports from Germany rose to a record $5.24 billion, as the monthly deficit hit an unprecedented $3.01 billion. Analysts said the weak euro had hampered U.S. exports to Europe. Volatile oil prices were also a major factor in the rise in the deficit. The November price per barrel of crude petroleum rose to $20.90, nearly double oil prices a year earlier and the highest since January 1997 when the price was $21.86. One bright spot in the report was a narrowing in politically sensitive deficits with Asian trading giants China and Japan. The deficit with China shrank to $6.49 billion, versus $7.15 billion in October. The gap with Japan fell to $6.37 billion from $7.18 billion in the previous month. Shapiro attributed the change to seasonal factors. Imports of toys and other goods from China had surged in October as U.S. stores stocked up for Christmas. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------