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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alex who wrote (47330)	1/20/2000 7:50:00 PM
From: Tom Byron	Respond to of 116763

some current analysis of the spx 500, etc. sandspring.com

To: Alex who wrote (47330)	1/20/2000 7:50:00 PM
From: Enigma	Respond to of 116763

It's hard to figure it out - in general you'd think that gold would fall prior to an auction. I suppose the conspiracy theory would have the B of E bidding it up ahead of time - but you'd think that would be bidders would be hoping for a lower price come auction time - so none of it makes sense. In truth 25 tons is not much in the daily trade in London. Going back to Greenspan - it would have made more sense if he'd said that CBs stood ready to sell gold. Leasing assumes there is someone ready to take on the lease at the drop of a hat - but this is not the case. The people who lease are producers and hedge funds engaged in the gold carry trade. Producers lease when their schedule calls for it - not when some CB or bullion bank says they should. So it must boil down to the theory that bullion banks and hedge funds are there to do the bidding of the CBs - 'lease it from us, sell it and invest in treasuries or the equivalent'. This assumes that the CBs have no vested interest in the POG being at least stable. That last posting you made about the Swiss Central Bank is disturbing. They should make an off market deal with other CBs to dispose of the gold - not scare the market. Also I thought the original intent of the sales was to make it up to the Jews whose stolen gold the Swiss accepted/bought from the Nazis in the war to finance the German war effort.

To: Alex who wrote (47330)	1/21/2000 8:52:00 AM
From: Enigma	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116763

Auction - I think we tend to forget that the people involved in the auction are the same ones that trade gold every day - so they have a good idea as the auction approaches how things are looking. If I recall it correctly the price fell off at the eleventh hour as it became clear that the bids weren't going to be strong - the prices fell off in overnight trading I seem to remember. At the moment it looks as if the auction price will be around $287 spot - but we could get a movement up or down pre-auction as the players assess the situation.