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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (6239)	1/21/2000 5:25:00 AM
From: JDN	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 10293

Dear Bill: I'm sticking by my advice that techs should be sold while prices are high, high, high and the money shifted to money markets, CDs, and the stocks of dividend-paying, boring value stocks (particularly financials and consumer durables) while those prices are low, low, low. Its hard to dispute you on this, but my problem is the taxes. I and I suspect many old timers like me have HUGE unrecognized capital gains. At a minimum we will pay 20% capital gains taxes at the Federal level. So the market pulls back 20% we are only even, say it pulls back 30% ok we can pick up or save 10%. Then what. We gotta know when and where to buy. Personally, in the foreseeable future I just cant see a pullback exceeding 30% and even that is less likely in my judgement then a 20% pullback. I am not arguing with you just thinking my thoughts out loud. Like you, I have a nice X myself and wouldnt want to lose it, on the other hand there are no CD's that allow people to live a decent retirement. So I am in a quandry. I think I am rather conservative, I have no margin, no personal debt of any kind, about 40% of my portfolio is in Fixed income securities, about 15% in cash and the balance in common stocks with probably 80% of that in Techs. What do you think? JDN

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (6239)	1/21/2000 6:17:00 PM
From: FruJu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10293

Couldn't agree more Bill. As of Monday (being called out via covered calls), I'll have turned 85% of my tech stock portfolio into cash in the past week. Speaking of possible consumer plays, have you looked at ROST? Perhaps it's suffering from being out of favour with the current "flush" pockets of people who shop at Nordstroms and Neiman Marcus :-), but it still has growing revenues, growing earnings, and a P/E of under 8.

To: Bill Wexler who wrote (6239)	1/21/2000 10:54:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10293

Bill, I can't disagree. What I see around me is scary. People with less than me quitting their jobs and becoming "retired" in their 30s and 40s on the strenth of portfolios that are barely touching seven figures. After all, if you've got a million bucks, that's pretty much the same as a $200,000 paycheck right? The market always gets 20% or more for smart investors, doesn't it? A few days ago you posted that when the market suffers a decline, there's going to be a world of hurt out there. I beg to differ. It doesn't take a decline. All it has to do is move sideways for a year. Whether you're a Valley homeowner who has mortgaged the place to invest in the stock market or a silicon baby who thinks she can live forever off a barely 7-figure portfolio, you're going to be in HUGE trouble when things slow down. At that point, stocks will be fetching fire-sale prices as people scramble to stay afloat. Also expect job re-training to become a big issue at that point. Lots of people, especially technical types, are going to find themselves quite obsolete when they suddenly realize that a job is a necessity. mg