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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FIRENZA who wrote (19141)	1/20/2000 10:44:00 PM
From: gpowell	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 29970

I just listened to the CC, my overall impression is positive but I have concerns not yet addressed - none having to do with growth. ATHM is predicting subs growth far below your extrapolations from current growth rates. I think your numbers are reachable with the emerging retail availability of DOCSIS modems and self install regimes. Unfortunately, the volume roll out of retail modems seems to have been delayed further out into late 2000. ATHM's guidance for 2000 end of Q4 34 million upgraded homes. 2.5 to 2.8 million subscribers. 8% overall penetration rate. Revenue projection for 2000 - $750 million. Revenue breakdown: 40% from subscription, 60% Ad/E-Commerce. Gross Margins low 60%s. G&A - 6% to 7% of revenue. R&D - 13% of revenue Sales & Marketing - 38%-39% of revenue. Other positives. Multi-platform (DSL primarily) roll out beginning now - with some occurring in particular cable partners areas. Penetration rate of 25% to 30% in mature markets. 30% of modems will be supplied by retail market by end of Q4. Beginning of @HOME internet over TV, rolled out by AT&T and COX. These are all solid numbers. I liked the aggressive tone of Bell. This is not the old @HOME - it's an angrier version. I like it. I do see negatives in the numbers (like a loss of $1.93, after charges), but still need to look a little closer.