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Gold/Mining/Energy : Infowave Wireless Messaging IW:TSE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: WhatsUpWithThat who wrote (1262)	1/21/2000 3:09:00 AM
From: axial	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1690

WUWT - Never mind the 4 million, I'd be happy to have the 150 thousand! I feel the same way about it as you - no real significance. This certainly isn't a like the Corel selling, and it doesn't bother me a bit. I do believe that the announcement precedes one more runup (at least), and they'll be sold into it. That runup will precede the NASDAQ listing NR - rumored to be March. Some evidence to suggest there's about 1 1/2 blockbuster NR's left, who knows? Anyway, late last spring I had a one year price target of $50 for IW, based on forward projections. I'd like to do it again, over the next couple of weeks, and put the results out here. One thing is clear - the wireless landscape has changed tremendously in a year. Trends have changed. Two things come to mind in these projections... the first is that, from what I see, they're going to try to make the phone do as much as possible. The reasons? Because the cell coverage, the infrastructure, is already available, and the wavelengths permit through-wall communication. Also, people will want to carry only one device...I suspect that the favorite will be the cell phone, therefore every technological effort will be made to cram as much functionality into the phone as possible, and to increase the data rate in the transfer mechanism/protocol. I think this is where the bulge is, at the consumer level. This will matter with the CDMA implementation coming from Infowave. This is more "consumer" as opposed to "enterprise" revenue. SIDEBAR - Wouldn't it be great to see an Infowave package accompanying CDMA phones? And then there's the European GSM maket - what can we expect there? The second is the "adoption rate". With Symmetry, for example, it's a straight migration to a new 2-way pager. But what percentage of Glenayre customers will switch, in the first year? My own guess is 2-5%, but maybe they'll put on a marketing blitz, and it'll be 10%. Or maybe people will be wild for the product, and it'll be 25%. And what about Infowave for the Net? ( Great product) How many people will switch to software running on an ASP? Has anyone seen any studies on this? How much of Infowave for the Net's revenue stream will come from conventional sales (ie., to the end-user) and thru ASPs? The question of the "adoption rate" comes up again, too. Anyway, I welcome the thoughts of everyone on this - any articles, links, reports, projections, that can help to make the forecast more accurate. A while back, I posted a $70(US) target for IW, based on a comparison with Aether and Puma. Perhaps we can draw a more meaningful picture of future revenues. Regards, Jim