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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (37732)	1/21/2000 9:29:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Stock Market: The continued fragmentation of the market makes it unfeasible to make a prediction for "the market" as a whole. The $SPX (and $OEX) probably conforms best to what our broad indicators are saying. The equity-only put-call ratio has stopped rising and right now appears to be in tight range. I'd call it slightly negative at these levels, since it still is in the area of the chart which indicates that call buying has been exceeding put buying for long time. Thus, it's likely to generate another sell signal in the not-too-distant future. In fact, it is mirroring the $SPX itself, which has been trading in a range between 1390 and 1470 since last November. Our oscillator is in a fairly similar position: it has been creeping higher and higher into modestly overbought territory, but it hasn't issued a sell signal. It stands at about +60, after having risen as high as +148 earlier in the week. I think these indicators lend themselves to a modestly bearish interpretation, which would be changed if new highs were made in $SPX and $OEX, on a closing basis. Thus, a reasonable strategy would be to own put bear spreads, planning to stop yourself at new highs on $SPX. optionstrategist.com

To: Les H who wrote (37732)	1/21/2000 11:39:00 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Les, Don Wallenchuk has been pretty much on the money the last few years. I tend to agree with him that we will see over $1,000 Gold in a few years- although I doubt we will see Dow 36,000 or Dow 100,000 over the next decade. Don has been aggressively buying gold over the past year. My bearish comments on the XAU were merely short term in nature. But make no mistake about it: The sector I am most bullish on over the next 5 years is Gold Mining. The decline from $800 an ounce over the past 20 Years has been merely corrective. In a gold bull market, the old high will be taken out easily. For those who think that Gold is in a perpetual Bear Market, shock waves are coming to a financial market near you.