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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: kormac who wrote (58853)1/21/2000 12:41:00 PM
From: CpsOmis  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
This is the article that is circulating. I think the attributution to tokyoJoe is a ruse. There has been speculation that it is a PickOfTheWeek at a stock site. Bottom line is, they probably have made their big payment, and it looks like all is clear for the future. Combining that with potential good news from the domes, and the incredibly undervalued state of the stock, with a low float is probably why the volume.

Then again, there is always the potential for "something we don't know"

My guess is, that this will continue to move wildly for the next few days, and either take off or die depending on if substantial news arrives.

I lucked out and sold a bunch, so, emotionally, I am not risking "new money". It still has the potential, with good earnings and the future of oil/gas and some great finds to still really soar, but it is still a high risk/reward gamble.

The following is the story. Don't know the source, but the info appears factual:

Here's Our Pick!

MEXP - (NASDAQ) Miller Exploration is an Oil and Natural Gas exploration and production firm headquartered, as it has been since 1925, in Traverse City, Michigan. Approximately 70% of the companies revenue comes from Natural Gas production.The remaning 30% from oil production. The Companies three primary areas of operation are the Northern Michigan area, the Mississippi Salt Dome Basin, and The Onshore Gulf of Mexico areas of Texas and Louisiana. Miller Exploration is aggressively developing its leaseholds in the Mississippi Salt Dome Basin with Remingtion (Nasdaq: ROIL) using three dimensional seismic data from the subsurface. Using this 3D data, drilling success has been greater than 90%, as evidenced by the increase in Salt Dome production year over year. In addition, the Company has entered into a joint partnership with K2 Energy of Canada to explore and develop a shallow natural gas area on the Blackfoot Indian Reservation in Montana. Initial drilling results are promising.

The companies 2000 revenue is projected to grow 40% to 50% to roughly $25 to $30,000,000 with a positive bottom line due to increased year over year oil production volumes and significant pricing improvement. According to the latest 10Q filed in November 1999, average selling price of Crude oil for the third quarter of 1999 was $17.35 per bbl. Oil prices, as have been the talk of the pundits recently, are pushing $30 per bbl. We expect MEXP to post a profit of 4 to 6 cents per share in the 4Q 1999 report.

Miller, like many small exploration and production companies, was forced to write down their assets during the Oil crunch of 1997-98. The writedown has impaired Miller's ability to refinance it's debt with the Bank of Montreal until the year end valuation of reserves, known in the industry as the SEC PV10, is issued for 1999. As you can imagine, with Natural gas demand strong and oil prices up nearly 100% or more from Decvember 31, 1998 levels, this new PV10 valuation should enable Miller to restructure it's debt, reduce its interest expense, and accelerate its exploration program. Miller has been paying down debt at the rate of approximately $1,000,000 per month from cash flow over the last year. A $4,000,000 payment to the Bank of Montreal is due on January 31, 2000. This has led to uncertainty in the stock, and allows a great buying opportunity. The indication is that MEXP will make this payment on time. In fact, MEXP has made a series of similar type principal reduction payments to the Bank of Montreal ahead of schedule over the last several quarters.

Bitter cold storms are freezing the Northeast, Midwest, West and Canada. Oil prices at 10 year highs; natural gas consumption is breaking all U.S. records, bouying gas prices. We believe now is the time to take a close look at Miller Exploration (MEXP) prior to anticipated upside revenue and earnings surprises along with major brokerage upgrades and furthur institutional interest.

With a book value of nearly twice the current stock price and a chart that looks like a coiled spring, Miller Exploration (MEXP) seems poised to benefit from rising production volumes, the strongest energy market in 20 years, and its anticipated debt restructuring. Expect Strong Movement!

Issued and outstanding 13.5M
Float 6.6M
High $11.00
Low $ .56
Current Price $ 1.00



To: kormac who wrote (58853)1/21/2000 12:43:00 PM
From: ItsAllCyclical  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95453
 
Small cap E&P's. Touting MEPX at $1 is certainly not hyping it. But I'll take 100% gain anyday. Given the questions outstanding with MEXP I'd rather take the profits and roll them into the next small cap laggard. Based on today's prices I've been adding to my EPEX, TEXP, CRK positions.

One can buy MEXP today at 2x cash flows or they can buy PXD around 2.25x cash flows with far more safety on margin. It's a no-brainer imho.

I'm treating these small caps like options. If I get a decent profit I'm rolling it over into the next laggard. I'd rather hold my large cap E&P's for long term gains and trade the small caps.

I figure I can eventually write covered calls with the large caps and there's little danger of a dry hole sending the company crashing 25-50%...not so with small caps.